考虑预报风速与功率曲线因素的风电功率预测不确定性估计  

Uncertainty Evaluation of Wind Power Prediction Considering Impacts of Power Curve and Predicted Wind Speed

作　　者：王勃[1] 冯双磊[1] 刘纯[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国电力科学研究院,北京市海淀区100192

出　　处：《电网技术》2014年第2期463-468,共6页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家863高技术基金项目(2011AA05A101)~~

摘　　要：对影响风电功率预测不确定性的数值天气预报风速与风电机组功率曲线进行分析。分别从时间和风速水平角度对预报风速的不确定性进行了定量评估,提出了2种风速预报的综合不确定性评估模型;分析了风机理论功率曲线、实际运行功率曲线的不确定性以及功率曲线的固有特性对功率预测结果不确定性的影响;在此基础上提出了一种功率预测不确定评估的工程化模型。算例分析结果验证了该模型在工程应用中的可靠性和准确性。The wind speed from numerical weather prediction and power curve of wind power generation units, which affect wind power prediction uncertainty, are analyzed. In the aspects of time and wind speed level the quantitative evaluation uncertainty of predicted wind speed is performed and two kinds of synthetic uncertainty evaluation models are proposed. The theoretical power curve of wind turbine and the uncertainty of its power curve under actual operation as well as the impact of inherent characteristic of the power curve on uncertainty of power prediction are analyzed. On this basis, an industrialization model for uncertainty evaluation of power prediction is put forward. The reliability and accuracy of the proposed model in engineering application are verified by case study.

关 键 词：风电功率预测 不确定性估计 数值天气预报 功率曲线 

分 类 号：TM721[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]