经济重心与人口重心的时空演变——来自省会城市的证据  

The Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Economic and Population Gravity:Evidence from Provincial Capital Cities

作　　者：倪鹏飞[1] 杨华磊[2] 周晓波[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院城市与竞争力研究中心 [2]中国农业大学经济管理学院 [3]兰州大学经济学院

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2014年第1期44-54,127,共11页Chinese Journal of Population Science

摘　　要：文章通过数据挖掘发现：（1）1994～2011年人均iGDP较高和较低的省份，经济重心都先向省会城市聚集，然后再远离省会城市；且前者经济重心偏离省会城市的程度大于后者；人均GDP居中的省份，经济重心还在不断向省会城市聚集。（2）1990～20111年人均GDP较高的省份，人口重心开始缓慢地远离省会城市；人均GDP较低的省份，人口重心还在不断向省会城市聚集。（3）2011年整体上经济重心偏离省会城市的程度小于人口重心偏离省会城市的程度。（4）人口重心远离（或聚集）省会城市滞后于经济重心远离（或聚集）省会城市。总之，经济重心和人口重心围绕省会城市呈现收缩和扩张的脉动现象，并在脉动的过程中，经济重心调整的步调快于人口重心，经济重心和人口重心不断偏离省会城市。这些发现和结论，将为以后制定和实行的新型城镇化、区域协调及缩小区域差距的发展战略提供事实和理论基础。Through analyzing data concerned,this paper finds that:(l)From 1994 to 2011,the economic gravity of provinces with both higher GDP per capita and lower GDP per capita assembled to the provincial capital and then drift far away from the capital.The degree of deviation of the former is greater than the latter.The economic gravity of provinces' GDP per capita in the middle range is gathering to the provincial capital.(2)During 1990 and 2011,the population gravity of provinces with higher GDP per capita slowly move away from the provincial capital while such gravity of provinces with lower GDP per capita continues to gather in the capital.(3)In 2011,the degree of the deviation of economic gravity from the capitals is less than that of the deviation of population gravity from the capitals.(4)The process that the population gravity is away from(or close to) the capital lags behind the process that the economic gravity is away from(or close to) the capital.In a word,the fluctuations of the economic gravity and the population gravity around the capital present the contraction and expansion.Meanwhile,in the process of the fluctuations,the adjustment of economic gravity is faster than that of the population gravity,and they both continuous deviating from the provincial capital.These findings provide some referece to the design of development strategy for the urbanisation,regional s coordination,and narrowing the regional gap.

关 键 词：省会城市 经济重心 人口重心 数据挖掘 

分 类 号：C91[经济管理]