干旱灾害应急水资源合作储备模型研究  

The Cooperative Stockpile Model of Emergency Water Resources for Extreme Drought Events

作　　者：张乐[1,2] 王慧敏[1,2] 佟金萍[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京210098 [2]河海大学管理科学研究所,南京210098 [3]常州大学经济管理学院,常州213164

出　　处：《资源科学》2014年第2期342-350,共9页Resources Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目:"保障经济;生态和国家安全的最严格水资源管理制度体系研究"(编号:12&ZD214);国家社会科学基金项目:"突发水灾害事件应急管理机制研究"(编号:10CGL069);国家自然科学基金青年项目:"城市极端雨洪灾害预警与应急管理研究"(编号:71303074);国家自然科学基金重大培育项目:"非常规突发水灾害事件的应急合作机制与建模仿真"(编号:90924047);云南省科技计划项目:"云南干旱灾害风险管理及水利适应调控研究"(编号:2010CA013);江苏省研究生培养创新工程:"非常规突发水灾害应急合作的集体行动及路径选择"(编号:CXLX11_0464)

摘　　要：针对干旱灾害管理中应急水资源配置问题,本文提出采取政府、企业合作储备应急水资源模式应对普遍存在的水资源供给不足情况。基于不确定的用水需求,借鉴战略库存(SES)概念,构造应急水资源的安全储备总量约束;运用经典报童模型,并引入合作激励的预支付机制,分别构建了合作与不合作下政府、企业应急水资源储备成本函数;进而以合作储备模式下政府应急水资源储备成本最小化为目标函数,构建了满足政府、企业个体理性下的应急水资源合作储备模型。以云南2010年特大干旱为例,分析了基于多情景下可变策略的政企合作储备策略优化解。本文从理论上证明了政企应急水资源合作储备模式的可行性,能够为我国干旱灾害应急管理提供一定的借鉴。In order to deal with the problem of poor water supply, the cooperative stockpile strategy between government and enterprises has been proposed. Here, based on uncertain water demands after disasters, referring to the theory of strategy inventory, constraints on total safety stockpiles for emergency water resource supply were constructed. Using the Newsvendor model and introducing the advance payment mechanism, the corresponding cost function of government and enterprises was built and included cooperative and non-cooperative stockpile strategies. Aiming to minimize the reserve costs for government under a cooperative stockpile strategy, the optimal equation set of emergency water allocation under this situation was established. These equations also can be testified as nonlinear programming. An example was analyzed using extreme droughts in Yunnan in 2010, and tradeoff solutions were generated with the multiple disruption scenarios of emergency water supply using the Lagrange multiplier. The results show that proper institutional arrangement such as an advanced payment mechanism can incentivize enterprises to participate in emergency water supply after droughts while increasing the social benefits of drought mitigation. This study proves that the mode of cooperative stockpiles between government and enterprise is feasible, and provides relevant policies and suggestions about extreme drought management.

关 键 词：应急水资源配置 战略库存 报童模型 预支付策略 合作储备模式 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]