油气生产企业重大安全突发事件社会影响扩散模型  

Modeling of social-impact diffusion of major security emergencies in oil-gas production companies

作　　者：高军[1,2] 吴鹏[1] 王睿[1] 李军[3] 吴欣桐[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学经济管理学院 [2]四川石油天然气发展研究中心 [3]四川华油集团重庆凯源石油天然气有限责任公司

出　　处：《天然气工业》2014年第2期130-134,共5页Natural Gas Industry

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(编号:10CZZ038);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(编号:09XJCZH011);西南石油大学人文社科专项(编号:2012RW001)

摘　　要：油气生产企业发生安全突发事件的频率较高,一般性安全突发事件极易借助一定的条件和动力扩散成为重大安全突发事件,进而造成巨大的经济损失甚至带来更为严重的社会负面影响。为了有效控制突发事件的发生、扩散和衍变,通过分析重大安全突发事件属性及强度、承灾对象脆弱性、应对体系脆弱性这3个扩散影响因素,借助系统分析思想和系统动力学方法构建了社会影响扩散模型来有效控制事件扩散升级;结合油气生产常见突发事件对3个扩散因素进行控制管理分析,建立了影响因素脆弱性指标评价体系,并提出借助层次分析法进行对象脆弱性的定量分析。最后指出:油气生产企业应加强日常管理和监督,降低重大安全突发事件发生的可能性;寻找控制承灾对象和社会应对体系脆弱性的关键因素并进行有效管理,降低事件扩散的速度和可能性。该成果可为安全突发事件的控制、预警机制的构建提供参考。In such a high-risk industry, an oil-gas production company has a higher frequency of encountering emergent security ulct dents. Under certain circumstances, general security emergencies may evolve into some major evens resulting in huge economic los ses or even negative social impacts. This study aims to efficiently manage and control the occurrence, spreading and deterioration of any emergent events. First, three main influencing factors were focused on： the attribute and intensity of the emergency response system; the vulnerability of the hazard affected objects; and the weakness of the emergency response system. Second, the social im- pact diffusion model was established to keep the event under control based on the systems analysis theory and system dynamics method. Third, according to the regular occurrence of events in oil and gas production, control and management analysis was made to control the said three influencing factors and their vulnerahi~.ity was evaluated by art index evaluation system with the application of AHP. In the end, it was pointed out that such a company should also strengthen their routine management and supervision to miti- gate the risk in any emergent incidents and should try to find out and manage the key vulnerability factors of the hazard affected ot〉 iects and social response system to prevent an acute and emergent event from spreading and getting deteriorated.

关 键 词：油气生产企业 安全突发事件 扩散影响因素 社会影响 扩散模型 控制管理 预警机制 

分 类 号：TE687[石油与天然气工程—油气加工工程]