基于系统动力学的林下经济可持续发展战略仿真分析  

A Simulation Analysis on Sustainable Development Strategy for Under-Forest Economy Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：姜钰[1] 贺雪涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学经济管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《中国软科学》2014年第1期105-114,共10页China Soft Science

基　　金：黑龙江省青年科学基金资助项目(QC2012C047);中国博士后科学基金资助项目(20090460871);黑龙江省博士后科研启动基金项目(LBH-Q12169)

摘　　要：如何合理开发利用林下资源,通过发展林下经济,实现现代林业,实现人与自然的和谐发展,是解决中国林业面临的基本问题的方法之一。本文基于系统动力学理论,对林下经济可持续发展的体系结构进行系统分析,根据系统的因果循环反馈关系建立了林下经济可持续发展的SD模型,分析了林下经济的经济、社会、生态三个子系统的相互作用和各自的系统结构,并以黑龙江省为例进行了实证分析,进而提出相关对策建议。How to exploit and use under-forest resources reasonably, develop the under-forest economy, realize modem forestry economy and the harmonious development of man and nature are one of the ways to solve the basic problems of China＇s forestry. Based on system dynamics, this paper analyzes systematically sustainable development＇s architecture of under-forest economy, establishes the SD model of under-forest economy＇s sustainable development according to the sys- tem of relationship between causal feedback loops. Then, this paper analyzes interactions and respective system structure of the three subsystems of economy, social, and ecological. Finally ,taking Heilongjiang province as an example ,the paper puts forward related policy recommendations.

关 键 词：林下经济 可持续发展 战略仿真 实证分析 系统动力学 

分 类 号：F124.3[经济管理—世界经济]