近52年广东冬季气温异常的气候特征及变化  

Climatic Characteristics and Variation of Winter Temperature Anomalies in Guangdong in the Last 52 Years

作　　者：伍红雨[1] 李春梅[1] 刘锦銮[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东省气候中心,广州510080

出　　处：《热带地理》2014年第1期20-26,共7页Tropical Geography

基　　金：科技部公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006029);广东省气象局科技项目(2013B11);广东省气候中心项目(201207)

摘　　要：利用近52年(1961―2012)广东86个气象站的月气温资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析气温资料,采用线性趋势分析、EOF分析、Mann-Kendall检验、相关分析、合成分析等方法分析广东冬季气温异常的气候特征及变化。结果表明:广东冬季气温EOF分析的第一特征向量方差贡献率高达91.2%,全省一致性是其最重要的特征。近52年来广东冬季气温具有明显的年际和年代际变化。气温最高出现在1998年(15.9℃)、最低出现在1967年(11.5℃);1961―2012年,广东冬季平均气温为14.0℃。近52年来广东冬季平均气温以0.26℃/10 a的速率明显上升,但增温速率低于全国平均的冬季增温速率,并在1989年发生升温的突变。广东冬季平均气温在20世纪60―80年代偏低,20世纪90年代以来偏高。广东冬季增温趋势最显著的地区是珠江口和粤东南,最大出现在深圳和潮州,增温速率达到0.47℃/10 a。广东冬季气温趋势与全国大部分地区一致,特别是与我国东南部地区。广东冷冬年的前后期气温都是以偏低为主,而暖冬年的前期——夏季、秋季气温以正常为主,后期以正常到偏高为主,广东冬季气温与前期11月气温相关最显著。Based on the monthly temperature data of 86 observational stations in Guangdong and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis temperature data in the last 52 years （from 1961 to 2012）, the climatic characteristics and variation of winter temperature anomalies in Guangdong are analysed by linear trend analysis, EOF analysis, Mann-Kendall test, correlation, composite analysis and so on. The results show that the contribution rate to the variance of the first principal component by EOF analysis of the winter temperature in Guangdong reached 91.2%, the most important characteristic of the winter temperature in Guangdong was consistent, it had significant interannual and interdecadal variation in the last 52 years, the highest temperature was in 1998 （15.9℃）, while the lowest in 1967 （11.5℃）. The winter mean temperature in Guangdong from 1951 to 2012 was 14.0℃, the temperature increased obviously at a rate of 0.26 ℃/10a in Guangdong in the last 52 years, its increase rate was significantly lower than the mean in China as a whole. It showed an abrupt change of temperature rising in 1989. The winter mean temperature in Guangdong was lower in the 1960-80s, and was higher since 1990s. The most remarkable warming trend occurred in the Pearl River Delta and southeastern Guangdong, the maxmam rate was 0.47 ℃/10a in Shenzhen and Chaozhou. The winter temperature trend in Guangdong was consistent with that in China, especially in Southeast China. The temperature was mainly lower before and after the cold winter, but it was mainly normal in summer and autumn before the warm winter, and it was mainly normal and higher after the warm winter. The correlation between the winter mean temperature and the prior period （November） temperature was significant.

关 键 词：冬季气温异常 气候特征 广东 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]