广州市能源消费和经济增长关系  

Relationship Between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth of Guangzhou

作　　者：梁圆[1] 千怀遂[1] 李明霞[1] 郭瑞敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]广州大学地理科学学院,广州510006

出　　处：《热带地理》2014年第1期95-103,共9页Tropical Geography

摘　　要：广州市受自然因素制约,能源资源稀缺,而随着经济的快速发展,能源需求增长迅速。以广州市1988―2010年的数据为基础,运用协整理论结合库兹涅茨曲线等方法,分析广州市能源消费和经济增长的关系。研究结果表明:1)经济增长总量是能源消费总量的格兰杰原因,第二产业经济增长是第二产业能源消费的格兰杰原因,他们都处于库兹涅茨曲线倒"U"型假说的前半段;2)第三产业能源消费是第三产业经济增长的格兰杰原因,其库兹涅茨曲线呈现正相关线性关系;3)第一产业能源消费和经济增长不存在长期均衡关系,两指标也不适用于分析库兹涅茨曲线关系。随着广州市经济结构转型升级,受提高能源利用效率的高新技术和节能技术的大量开发运用等其他多方面因素的影响,未来能源消费和经济增长的因果关系会发生改变。因此,不同发展时期应考虑不同产业结构以及技术进步等的发展,制定与之相适应的能源政策。With the rapid development of economy, energy demand is growing rapidly. Guangzhou is conditioned by natural factors but lack of energy resources. This study investigates the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for Guangzhou during the period 1988-2010 through the application of cointegration test, error correction model, Granger causality test and Kuznets curve. The results indicate that there is unidirectional Granger causality running from GDP to total energy consumption and secondary industry GDP to the secondary industry energy consumption. They are in the first half of Kuznets curve inverted-U hypothesis. The authors find that there is unidirectional Granger causality running from tertiary industry energy consumption to the tertiary industry GDP and Kuznets curve presents a positive linear correlationship. Furthermore, there is no long-run equilibrium relationship between the primary industry GDP and industrial energy consumption and the two indicators are not suitable for Kuznets curve analysis. With structural transformation and upgrade of the economy, the massive development and use of advanced technology in efficiency improvement of energy consumption and energy saving and so on, causal relationship of energy consumption and economic growth will change. So the government must formulate the suitable energy policy by considering the different industrial structure and technical progress and development in different development period.

关 键 词：能源消费 经济增长 协整 GRANGER因果关系 库兹涅茨曲线 广州市 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济]