单台风力机风速和气温的实时预测系统开发  

The Development of Real-Time Speed and Temperature Prediction System for Single Wind Turbine

作　　者：吴兵恒[1] 宋梦譞[1] 陈凯[1] 张兴[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学航天航空学院传热与能源利用北京市重点实验室热科学与动力工程教育部重点实验室,北京100084

出　　处：《工程热物理学报》2014年第2期295-298,共4页Journal of Engineering Thermophysics

基　　金：国家高技术研发计划(863计划)(No.2007AA05Z426);国家国际科技合作专项项目(No.2011DFG13020)

摘　　要：为了应对全球性能源危机和环境污染,各国争相开发利用可再生能源,目前风能是最具大规模商业化开发利用潜力的可再生能源之一.在利用风能进行发电时,开发一个针对风速和气温的实时预测系统对于风电场电力系统的调度和安全稳定运行具有重要意义.本文介绍了基于清华大学建筑设计院楼顶的单台聚风型风力机的一个实时预测系统,此预测系统使用时间序列法中的ARMA(Auto Regression Moving Average)模型对风速和气温进行预测,其可靠性和精确度通过比较预测结果与超声波风速仪的测量数据得到验证.To mitigate the global energy crisis and environmental pollution, people in many countries are investigating how to extract energy from renewable sources, among which wind energy is one of the most potential sources in business. For the dispatching of power system and the safe and stable operation, it is significant to develop a real-time prediction system for wind speed and temperature while converting wind power to electricity. In this paper we introduce a prediction system based on a wind turbine located on the roof of the building of the Architectural Design and Research Institute of Tsinghua University in Beijing. The system makes predictions in the Auto Regression Moving Average （ARMA） model with the time-series method, and its reliability and accuracy are tested by comparing the predictions with the data measured by the ultrasonic anemometer.

关 键 词：风力机 风速 温度 ARMA模型 实时预测 

分 类 号：TK89[动力工程及工程热物理—流体机械及工程]