基于AHP和模糊综合评价的民间金融风险判定与评估  

Judgment and Assessment of Informal Financial Risks Based on AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

作　　者：孙晨辉[1] 李富有[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《经济管理》2014年第2期136-146,共11页Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )

基　　金：国家软科学计划项目"西部地区民间投资发展趋势及其对经济的影响研究"(2011GXQ4D079);国家社会科学基金重大项目"民间资本供求风险防范及其健康发展研究"(12&ZD071)

摘　　要：本文将民间金融风险合理划分为七类,揭示与各类风险相关的影响因素,通过构建层次分析模型找出民间金融风险的判定方法,依据问卷调研数据,利用模糊综合评价法测算了全国和东、中、西部地区的民间金融综合风险和各项具体风险指数。结果表明,全国民间金融综合风险按百分制衡量为72,各地区民间金融风险普遍较高。东部民间金融综合风险高于中西部地区,并且东部地区的体制性风险、信用风险、高利率风险、操作性风险、流动性风险都高于全国及中西部地区。中部地区的政策性风险和道德风险高于其他地区和全国平均水平。本文最后提出建立"四位一体"的"民资、民用、民管"的市场化内生性民间金融风险控制机制的建议。In recent years, the scale and scope of informal finance has become increasingly apparent. However, the risk of informal finance has exposed gradually and causes serious hazards by shocking local economic and financial system stability though investment, consumption, capital, credit and expectation paths. What＇s worse, it＇s likely to trigger massive bankruptcies, even causing regional systemic risk. All this has attracted highly attention of researchers and supervisors. Therefore, the research on the informal finance risk＇s judgment, assessment and control mechanism has important theoretical value and practical significance. This paper divides the informal financial risks into two categories： exogenous risks and endogenous risks. The exogenous risks contain systematic risk and policy-type risk, and endogenous risks include credit risk, moral haz- ard, high interest risk, operational risk and liquidity risk. Informal financial risk has the characteristics of disper- sion, concealment, infectiousness, regionalism and management difficulties. According to the cause factors, characteristies and expression form of informal financial risks, the index system in order to judgment the informal financial risks is established scientifically where two kinds of exogenous risk involved 7 indexes, five endogenous risk involved 18 indexes. The index system includes the inhibition degree of informal finance, the influence of monetary policy adjustment, credit standing, mortgage-backed conditions and so on. The judgment method of informal financial risks is found by using the analytic hierarchy process （AHP） which the target layer is informal financial comprehensive risk, the rule layer is constituted by seven specific risks and index layer is 25 risk judgment indexes. The degree of influence between risks and indexes is assigned by using Delphi method, than paired comparison ma- trixes are constructed. The calculated weight vectors and combination weight vector both passed the consistency checking, so they can serve

关 键 词：民间金融风险 判定评估 层次分析法 模糊综合评价法 

分 类 号：F830.5[经济管理—金融学]