不确定供给对诱导系统均衡市场渗透率的影响  

Impact of Uncertain Supply on Equilibrium Market Penetration of Vehicle Route Guidance Systems

作　　者：况爱武[1] 唐志强[1,2] 黄中祥[1] 

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学交通运输工程学院,长沙410004 [2]江西赣粤高速公路股份有限公司,南昌330025

出　　处：《北京工业大学学报》2014年第2期253-259,共7页Journal of Beijing University of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51208064;51078044);湖南省教育厅科研资助项目(11B004)

摘　　要：为分析路段容量的降级程度对诱导系统均衡市场渗透率的影响,将出行者划分为"有ATIS接收装置用户"和"无ATIS接收装置用户".在一定的行程时间可靠性需求下,假定两类用户均基于行程时间预算选择路径,利用不确定性网络混合随机用户均衡建模理论,依据同一OD对之间两类用户的平均预算行程时间差建立了均衡市场渗透率模型,并设计了求解模型的启发式算法.通过测试网络讨论了信息质量、容量降级程度及需求水平对均衡市场渗透率的影响.研究结果表明,在不确定网络中更易产生集中现象,信息质量的改善不一定能提高市场渗透率,要取决于整个网络的拥堵状况.To investigate the impact of the link capacity degradation degree on the equilibrium market penetration of advanced traveler information systems （ATIS） , the travelers were divided into two classes： ＂travelers equipped with ATIS＂ and ＂travelers unequipped with ATIS＂. Assuming that two classes of travelers made their route choices based on travel time budget at a given reliability, the equilibrium market penetration model was established by the average travel time budget saving derived from ATIS service between an origin-destination pair, which could be determined by the uncertain road network mixed stochastic user equilibrium modeling approach. A heuristic solution algorithm for solving the model was proposed and some numerical studies on a test network were conducted to analyze the impacts of the information quality, the capacity degradation degree and the level of traffic demand on the market penetration. Results show that the concentration phenomenon is more likely to occur in an uncertain road network. In addition, the improvement of information quality may not be able to increase the market penetration, which depends on the congestion degree of the entire road network more significantly.

关 键 词：路径诱导系统 均衡市场渗透率 随机供给 行程时间预算 混合随机用户均衡 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]