大气污染与居民肺癌发病及死亡灰色关联分析  

Grey relational analysis on association between urban air pollution and lung cancer in China

作　　者：张晓[1,2] 杨琼英[1] 林国桢[2] 沈纪川[2] 周琴[2] 李科[2] 董航[2] 宋韶芳[2] 刘北燕[2] 陈清[1] 

机构地区：[1]南方医科大学公共卫生与热带医学学院流行病学系,广东广州510515 [2]广州市疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《中国公共卫生》2014年第2期165-170,共6页Chinese Journal of Public Health

摘　　要：目的探讨北京市、上海市和广东省广州市的大气污染与居民肺癌发病及死亡的关系,为肺癌防制政策的制定提供科学依据。方法收集北京、上海和广州市大气污染资料及居民肺癌发病和死亡数据,采用灰色关联分析方法计算绝对关联度、相对关联度和综合关联度,并对大气污染致肺癌的潜伏期作灰色定量分析。结果 NO2和PM2.5对北京市居民肺癌发病及死亡的影响最大,致肺癌的潜伏期分别为4和8年;降尘与PM2.5与上海市居民肺癌发病及死亡的关系最密切,致肺癌的潜伏期分别为2和4年;降尘与NO2对广州市居民肺癌发病及死亡的影响最大,致肺癌的潜伏期均为5年。结论北京、上海和广州市大气污染指标对居民肺癌发病及死亡的影响各有不同,其致肺癌的潜伏期各不相同,需针对性整治大气污染并提出相关肺癌防治措施。Objective To explore the relationship between urban air pollution and the morbidity and mortality ot lung cancer in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou city, and to analyze related air pollution factors of lung cancer morbidity and mortality. Methods Grey relational analysis was applied to calculate absolute degree of grey incidence,relative de- gree of grey incidence, synthetic degree of grey incidence, and the latent period of lung cancer induced by air pollution was quantitatively analyzed. Results The most serious pollution factors affecting lung cancer incidence in Beijing were nitrogen dioxide （ NO2 ） and particulate matter less than 2. 5 microns in aerodynamic diameter （ PM 2. 5 ）, and the corre- sponding latent periods of lung cancer were 4 and 8 years, respectively. In Shanghai, the most serious pollution factors were dust fail and PM 2. 5, and the corresponding latent periods were 2 and 4 years,respectively. In Guangzhou, the most serious pollution factors were dust fall and NO2 , and the corresponding latent periods were both 5 years. Conclusion The different characteristics were found in the relationship between lung cancer＇s morbidity and mortality and air popula- tion in the three urban areas, and the related latent periods were also different, suggesting that pertinent measures need to be taken to control urban air pollution for prevention of lung cancer.

关 键 词：肺癌 发病及死亡 大气污染物 灰色关联分析 

分 类 号：R122[医药卫生—环境卫生学]