基于灰色马尔可夫模型的新型农村合作医疗体制基金风险预测  

Fund Risk Prediction of New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme Based on Grey-Markov Model

作　　者：蔡文泳[1] 方积乾[1] 王心旺[1] 

机构地区：[1]广州医科大学卫生统计学教研室,510182

出　　处：《中国卫生统计》2014年第1期2-5,共4页Chinese Journal of Health Statistics

基　　金：广东省2010年科技计划项目(2010170)

摘　　要：目的研究灰色马尔可夫模型在新农合基金风险预测中的适用性,并应用该模型对新农合的基金风险进行预测。方法基于广州市番禺区2005-2011年新农合的相关资料,建立灰色马尔可夫模型,验证模型的适用性,并对2012-2016年的基金风险进行预测。结果灰色马尔可夫模型中新农合2012年参合人数和报销金额预测值与实际值比较,精确度为97.31%和98.05%。通过此模型预测的结果显示,新农合的基金总额先逐渐增加,到2014年后呈逐渐下降的趋势;而报销总额是呈逐渐上升的趋势。结论灰色马尔可夫模型适用于新农合的基金风险预测,由此模型所预测的结果显示番禺区新农合系统在未来5年间不会出现破产的情况,但从长远来看,应该适当加大新农合的资金投入。Objective Background： To study the applicability of Grey-Markov model in the fund risk prediction the NRCMS, and use this model to predict the fund risk of NRCMS. Methods In this study, the data of Panyu district, Guangzbou city from 2005 to 2011 were used to build the Grey-Markov model of NRCMS and test the its applicability, and use this model to predict the changes of fund risk of this area from 2012 to 2016. Results The accuracy of the total insurance number and the to- tal expenses in 2012 respectively was 97.31% and 98.05% in Grey-Markov model. The predicted results show that the total fund value increased gradually ,but decreased gradually after 2014. Nevertheless the total expenses increased gradually. Conclu- sion The Grey-Markov model was applicable to NRCMS fund risk prediction. The model predicted results show Panyu NRCMS will not be bankrupt in the 5 years. But in the long run,we＇d better increase the capital input of NRCMS appropriately.

关 键 词：灰色马尔可夫模型 新型农村合作医疗体制 基金风险预测 

分 类 号：R197.1[医药卫生—卫生事业管理] F323.89[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学] F842.613[经济管理—产业经济]