中国税收超GDP增长的因素分解研究——基于Divisia指数分解方法  

On Factor Decomposition of Tax Revenues Outpacing GDP Growth in China:Based on Divisia Index Decomposition Method

作　　者：刘金东[1] 冯经纶[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院,上海200433

出　　处：《财经研究》2014年第2期30-40,共11页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71373151);教育部人文社科基金(11YJA790008);上海市发展研究中心重大决策咨询课题(2010-A05);上海财经大学研究生创新基金(CXJJ-2012-323;CXJJ-2012-325)

摘　　要：文章推导出三因素Divisia指数分解方法,将多种因素纳入到一个统一的实证分析框架内,在控制价格统计因素的前提下,揭示了中国税收超GDP增长的根源。研究发现:行业税负提高带来的部门因素是税收超GDP增长的最主要动因,贡献率达到80%;其次是高税行业发展带来的经济因素和税制调整带来的政策因素。文章进一步利用中介效应检验发现,部门因素主要来自中国高速的存量资产积累,征管因素并不突出。由于税收征管效率边际收益递减,单纯依靠税收征管效率不足以支撑部门税负的连年提升,但中国资本形成率和资产交易率高企造成来自存量资产的税收收入大量增加,使得税收超GDP增长成为必然。这一结论对判断税收增长趋势和明确未来税制改革导向有重要的启示意义。This paper derives three-factor Divisia index decomposition method and introduces a variety of factors into a unified empirical research framework to reveal the real reasons for tax revenues outpacing GDP growth in China after the control of price factor.It concludes that sector factor resulting from the increase in industrial tax burdens is the most important motive for tax revenues outpacing GDP growth and provides the 80%contribution to tax revenues outpacing GDP growth.Economic factor resulting from high-tax industrial development and policy factor caused by the adjustment to tax system make the second great contribution to tax revenues outpacing GDP growth.Further test of mediation effect shows that sector factor mainly comes from the rapid accumulation of stock assets in China and administration factor is not dominant.Because of the diminishing marginal returns of tax collection efficiency,pure dependence on tax collection efficiency cannot provide a support for year-after-year increase in sector tax burdens,but especially high capital formation rate and assets exchange rate in China result in considerable increase in tax revenues from stock assets,making tax revenues outpacing GDP growth inevitable.This conclusion provides important enlightenment for the judgment of tax revenues growth tendency and the definition of future tax reform orientation.

关 键 词：税收超GDP增长之谜 Divisia指数分解 税收征管效率 存量资产 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学]