我国不同省份的风电发展趋势研究  

Research on development trend of wind power in selected provinces of China

作　　者：商立峰[1] 解百臣[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072 [2]中国科学院能源与政策环境研究中心,北京100190

出　　处：《可再生能源》2014年第2期191-195,共5页Renewable Energy Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71003072);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(09YJC880078)

摘　　要：近年来，中国风电取得了快速发展，了解了我国主要省份风电的发展趋势，对于合理制定国家整体风电发展目标具有重要的指导意义。文章首先对中国主要风电省份和2006～2012年的风电装机容垃数据进行分析，比较各省份风电发展的特点；然后建立符合各个省份风电发展情况的Logistic模型，根据模型预测各省份存2013-2020年的风电发展趋势．并进一步分析各省份在今后风电发展中所面临的主要问题和应采取的措施；最后给出相应的结论及政策建议。China has made a series of progress in the development of wind power in recent years. In order to make an overall development plan of wind power, it is of guiding significance to find out the development trend of main wind provinces in China. First the wind power installed capacity of selected provinces in China during 2006-2012 is analyzed, and similarities and differences of these provinces in wind power development are compared; then logistic models are developed according to the development characteristics of each province, and these models are used to predict development trend of wind power in 2013-2020, further analysis of main problems and measures to be taken by different provinces are given ; finally corresponding conclusions and policy recommendations are proposed.

关 键 词：风电发展 LOGISTIC模型 风电装机容量 政策建议 

分 类 号：TK81[动力工程及工程热物理—流体机械及工程]