电力投资决策的期权博弈模型及其发展评述  

Review on Real Option Game Based Modeling for Power Investment Decision-making and its Development

作　　者：朱慧蓉 

机构地区：[1]中国能源建设集团有限公司,北京100029

出　　处：《价值工程》2014年第7期146-148,共3页Value Engineering

摘　　要：电力投资决策对于电力企业甚至电力行业的发展有着举足轻重的作用,电力企业的投资选择是在外部环境竞争复杂性和不确定性的约束下进行的,需要研究复杂竞争环境和不确定因素条件下的投资决策方法。本文以电力投资决策模型分析入手,总结了电力投资决策模型的发展过程,探讨了电力投资的期权博弈模型发展过程、研究重点、缺陷、及发展方向,展示了电力投资决策期权博弈理论的发展脉络和思考重点。实践证明,该方法不仅能够对电力投资项目进行更加科学的而评估,还能够为电力行业的发展做出更加科学合理的决策。Electric power investment decision is very important for the development of electric power enterprises and even the power industry. Electric power enterprise investment choice is made under the external environment uncertainty and complexity, so it is necessary to study the investment decision method under complex competition environment and uncertain condition. Starting from the electric power investment decision model analysis, this articie summarizes the development process of electric power investment decision model, discusses the development process, research focus, defects, and the direction of power investment option game model, presents the development venation and focus of the power investment decision option game theory. Practice has proved that this method not only can make more scientific evaluation on electricity investment project, but also can make more scientific and rational decision for the development of electric power industry.

关 键 词：电力 投资决策 期权博弈 

分 类 号：F407.61[经济管理—产业经济]