回弹效应与能源效率政策的重点产业选择  

Major Industries Selection Based on the Rebound Effects and Energy Efficiency Policy

作　　者：胡秋阳[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,300071

出　　处：《经济研究》2014年第2期128-140,共13页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(09JZD0018);教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(09YJCZH064);能源基金(G1008-13131);天津市社科规划项目(TJTJ07-009);南开大学文科科研创新基金项目(NKC0732;NKC1007)的资助~~

摘　　要：能源效率政策在考虑产业侧重时不能只关注产业自身,还须从系统及结构的视角出发审视局部产业的能效提高对总体能耗的影响。本文利用CGE模型模拟分析了改善高能耗产业或低能耗产业的能源效率对中国总体能耗的可能影响,并比较了其影响方式的差异。结果表明,提高能效可降低成本从而促进能效提高产业的产出增长,因此尽管其能耗量有所下降但其中有产出增长带动下的能耗回弹,并在高能耗产业上更为明显;经济总体的能耗及能耗强度都更大幅度地下降,超出了能效提高产业自身能耗变动的总体贡献;形成反向的回弹效应并导致总体能耗进一步下降的原因是,能效提高产业的能耗下降抑制了能源产业的产出,减少了能源产业自身能耗以及能源转换中的能源投入,能源结构偏向于二次能源的低能耗产业尤其借助了这一反向的回弹效应;比较而言,低能耗产业能效提高的总体节能绩效优于高能耗产业。When considering industry focus, energy efficiency policy cannot only see the industry itself, it also must, from the angle of system and structure, examine the effect of local industry improvement on overall energy consumption efficiency. Simulation based on CGE model analyze the effect of improvement of energy efficiency of the high energy consumption industries or low energy consumption industry on China＇s overall energy consumption, and compares the differences of between them. The results show that, the energy efficiency can reduce costs and improve energy efficiency and facilitate industrial output growth, so while its energy consumption amount decreased, but with rebound of energy consumption output growth led by the output growth, which is more apparent on high energy consumption industry; Economic overall energy consumption and energy intensity fell more sharply, beyond the overall contribution of energy consumption change of industries which experience increase of energy efficiency; Leads to the further decline of a total energy consumption, the reason of rebound effect is that energy consumption decrease inhibits energy industry output, reduce the energy consumption of the energy industry itself and the energy input of energy conversion, low energy consumption industry with secondary energy structure, in particular, relies on the rebound effect; In comparison, the performance of overall energy saving of low energy consumption industries due to energy efficiency is better than that of energy-intensive industries.

关 键 词：回弹效应 结构效应 CGE模型 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济] F224