基于投入产出模型的我国房地产业宏观经济效应分析  

Exploring the role of the real estate sector in the Chinese economy:1997-2007

作　　者：李秀婷[1] 刘凡[1,2] 吴迪[1] 董纪昌[1] 高鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大学管理学院,北京100190 [2]北京银行博士后科研工作站,北京100080

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2014年第2期323-336,共14页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71173213);中国博士后科学基金一等资助项目(2013M540129);中国博士后科学基金二等资助项目(2013M530558);北京市博士后基金(2013ZZ-84)

摘　　要：对房地产业的合理定位是有效实施宏观调控和长远规划行业发展的重要前提.本文基于投入产出模型和1997以来的5张投入产出表,测算了我国房地产业的宏观经济效应,其中包括房地产业的产业关联效应,及其对经济增长、就业及物价的影响.研究成果有助于对我国房地产业在国民经济中进行合理定位,也为有效实施房地产调控,促进国民经济的协调发展提供量化依据.Reasonably positioning the role that the real estate industry has played in national economy is one of the most important prerequisites for the effective implementation of macro-control and long-term development planning of the industry. In this paper, the macroeconomic effects of China real estate industry are estimated by employing Leontief＇s input-output model. The major parts of the research include： 1. the inter-sectoral linkages of domestic real estate industry span from 1997 2007 are estimated; 2. the role of real estate sector in macroeconomic is explored; 3. related policy suggestions are also provided. The research results help the government reasonably position the real estate sector, and also contribute to the effective implementation of macro-control and promoting the coordinated development of national economy.

关 键 词：房地产业 投入产出模型 宏观经济效应 投入产出表 产业关联 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]