Downside-CAPM模型对矿业权评估中折现率的改进——以山东某金矿投资项目为例  

Modification on Discount Rate of Mining Rights Evaluation with Downside-CAPM Model——Taking a Gold Mine Project of Shandong as an Example

作　　者：黎斌林[1] 申维[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(北京)地球科学与资源学院,北京100083

出　　处：《矿业研究与开发》2014年第1期116-119,共4页Mining Research and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41172302)

摘　　要：在矿业权价值评估实务中,折现率的取值对最终价值的影响或可高达50%,而现行8%~10%的固定折现率缺乏弹性,因此确定合理的折现率至关重要。基于理论研究与对山东某金矿价值的核算相结合所得出的结论,认为β^(doumside)系数不仅能反映出投资的期望收益率与投资承受的市场风险之间的相互关系,而且排除了非对称、非规则性的收益率分布,仅将低于给定目标收益率的各种可能情况归为风险计量范围,可有效地描述所有潜在风险,因此更加符合矿业权项目折现率的确定。Different discount rate can cause a variation of as far as 50% in the value on the mining rights evaluation. Be- cause the existing fixed discount rate of 8%～10% is lack of elasticity, it is significant to determine a reasonable discount rate. Combined with theoretic study and the value accounting for a gold mine in Shandong, was considered not only to re- flect the relationship between desired return and market risk in investment, but also to exclude the asymmetric and irreg- ular return distribution. It only ranged all possibilities below given target rate into risk evaluation, which effectively sum- marized all potential risks and was more advisable to deter- mine the discount rate of mining rights.

关 键 词：矿业权评估 折现率 资本资产定价模型 下侧资本资产定价模型 

分 类 号：F407.1[经济管理—产业经济]