基于集对分析和证据理论融合的变压器内绝缘状态评估方法  

Assessment Strategy for Inner Insulation Condition of Power Transformer Based on Set-pair Analysis and Evidential Reasoning Decision-making

作　　者：廖瑞金[1] 孟繁津 周年荣 夏桓桓 张镱议[1,3] 程涣超[4] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点试验室,重庆400030 [2]云南电力试验研究院(集团)有限公司,昆明650051 [3]广西大学广西电力系统最优化与节能技术重点实验室,南宁530004 [4]中国电力科学研究院,北京100192

出　　处：《高电压技术》2014年第2期474-481,共8页High Voltage Engineering

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2009CB724505-1);中央高校基本科研业务费(CDJZR12110018)~~

摘　　要：变压器故障机理复杂,反映变压器内绝缘状态信息的数据因子繁多且具有不确定性。为此,结合工程经验建立了指标体系,提出了基于集对分析和证据理论融合相结合的内绝缘状态评估方法,并建立了一个2层评价模型。该模型第1层采用集对分析处理不确定性并产生信任分配函数。第2层对各因子的信任分配函数进行证据融合并对冲突证据进行处理产生最终隶属度,然后利用最大隶属度原则与信度准则相结合评估变压器的内绝缘状态。经过实例分析,初步验证了该方法的有效性,可以为变压器的状态评价和检修策略制定提供一种新的思路。Faults of power transformers have complex mechanisms, so there are various uncertain factors that could re- flect the condition of inner insulation in transformers. Therefore, on the basis of practical engineering experiences, we proposed an assessment index system, as well as an integrated model based on set-pair analysis and evidential reasoning reconciling for assessing transformer inner insulation. The integrated model is composed of two levels： the first level adopts a set-pair analysis model to deal with data uncertainty and to generate basic probability assignments for the second level; the second level utilizes an evidential reasoning decision-making model to reconcile all the evidences and to calcu- late their membership degrees, and eventually to give an conclusive evaluation of insulation according to the maximum membership degree and confidence criteria. The model is preliminarily verified by assessment of a practical case, which means it can be an effective method for future insulation evaluation and maintenance projecting of power transformers.

关 键 词：电力变压器 内绝缘 状态评估 集对分析 证据理论融合 联系度 

分 类 号：TM855.1[电气工程—高电压与绝缘技术]