技术进步对我国二氧化碳排放量的影响研究  

A Research of Technological Progress on the Impact of Carbon Dioxide Emissions

作　　者：刘露[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津师范大学,天津300387

出　　处：《生态经济》2014年第3期88-91,共4页Ecological Economy

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目"基于交通网络优化的天津低碳城市发展研究"(12YJC790120)

摘　　要：基于19922012年的数据，在STIRPAT模型基础上，分解出二氧化碳排放量、技术进步、人口规模和人均财富等因素，对各个变量进行平稳性检验、AR根检验、向量自回归检验和方差分解等。研究表明：所选变量具有很好的平稳性。碳排放量受自身滞后一阶显著正影响，滞后二阶影响不显著；受技术进步滞后一阶显著负影响，滞后二阶影响不显著；受人口规模和人均财富的影响不显著。技术进步受自身、碳排放量、人口规模和人均财富的影响均不显著。人均财富对于碳排放量的贡献率水平最高，技术进步其次，人口规模最小。据此提出了政策建议。Based on the data from the year 1992 to 2012, this paper decomposes the factors of carbon dioxide emissions, technological progress, population size and per capita wealth according to STIRPAT model, and then has a stationary test, AR root test, and vector auto regression test and variance decomposition on each variable. The results show that all variables have a good stability. Carbon emission is significantly positive impact by its own first-order lag and is not significant impact by its own second-order lag. Carbon emission is significantly negative impact by technological progress first-order lag and is not significant impact by second-order lag. And it is not significant impact by population size and per capita wealth. Technical progress is not significantly effect by its own, carbon emission, population size and per capita wealth. Wealth per capita has the highest level of contribution rate on carbon emission, the secondly is technological progress and the smallest is population. Finally, this paper puts forward the policy recommendations according to the research conclusions.

关 键 词：技术进步 碳排放量 向量自回归模型 方差分解 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济] F062.2