人民币即期汇率与境内外远期汇率动态相关性研究  

Exchange Rate Market and the Forward Exchange Rate Market at Home and Abroad

作　　者：黄志刚[1] 耿庆峰[1,2] 吴文平[1] 

机构地区：[1]福州大学管理学院,福建福州350108 [2]闽江学院公共经济学与金融学系,福建福州350108

出　　处：《金融经济学研究》2014年第1期109-119,共11页Financial Economics Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70973021);福建省社会科学规划重点项目(2009A032)

摘　　要：以2005年汇率改革以来人民币即期汇率市场浮动幅度的三次调整时间作为分界点,采用Copula理论对境内人民币即期汇率市场与外汇远期市场之间的相关性分阶段展开研究。实证结果表明,随着浮动幅度的不断扩大,人民币即期汇率市场同外汇远期市场之间的相关性也随之增强,市场之间面临着越来越大的联动性风险;即期汇率市场将取代境外NDF市场成为信息波动中心,境内DF市场初步具备对即期汇率市场的价格发现功能,NDF定价中心地位被削弱。As the cut -off point to the three times of floating range in the RMB spot ex- change rate market since the exchange rate reform in 2005, the paper introduces the Copula theory to study the correlation between the onshore RMB spot exchange rate market and the forward exchange rate market in segments, and the empirical results show that： With the continuous expansion of the floating range , the correlation between the RMB spot exchange rate market and the forward exchange rate market is gradually increased, and the exchange rate markets also face increasing linkage risk; The spot exchange rate market has replaced the principal of the offshore NDF market of the information volatility center, the domestic DF market begin to own the price discovery function of the spot exchange rate market, the pricing central position of NDF market is weakened.

关 键 词：即期汇率 远期汇率 浮动汇率 动态相关性 COPULA模型 

分 类 号：F822.2[经济管理—财政学]