基于网络层次分析法的跑道侵入风险模糊评价  

Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of runway incursion risk based on analytic network process

作　　者：卢飞[1] 张宗路[2] 张兆宁[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学国家空管运行安全技术重点实验室,天津300300 [2]深圳航空有限责任公司,广东深圳518128

出　　处：《中国民航大学学报》2014年第1期10-14,共5页Journal of Civil Aviation University of China

基　　金：中国民用航空局科技基金(MHRD201018);中央高校基本科研业务费专项(2XH2011B004)

摘　　要：近年来,随着机场交通量的增大,跑道侵入事件迅速增加,为了保障机场运行安全,对跑道侵入风险进行综合评价显得尤为重要。首先,在对跑道侵入影响因素进行分析的基础上,建立跑道侵入风险评价指标体系。综合分析各评价指标之间的相关性,运用网络层次分析法,构建跑道侵入的ANP网络结构,并借助Super Decision软件计算各评价指标权重。然后,应用模糊综合评价法对跑道侵入风险进行评价。通过实例分析,验证了该评价方法的有效性。最后,根据评价结果,对该机场降低跑道侵入风险的对策提出建议。Along with the increase of the airport traffic, runway incursion events are increasing rapidly, which have severely affected the airport security. In order to guarantee the safe operation of the airport, the assessment of runway incursion risk is critically significant. Firstly, after analyzing runway incursion influencial factors, the runway incursion risk assessment index system is established. Analyzing the interdependency relations of evaluation index, the runway incursion analytic network process （ANP） network structure is constructed, and Super Decision software is used to determine the weight of every index. Then, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to assess runway incursion risk. Through case analysis, the feasibility of the assessment method is verified. Finally, the promotion countermeasures are proposed for the airport to reduce runway incursion risk based on the evaluation results.

关 键 词：跑道侵入 风险评价 指标相关性 网络层次分析法(ANP) 模糊综合评价 

分 类 号：V328.3[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]