航材需求预测方法研究综述及启示  

Overview and enlightenment of demand forecasting method research about aircraft spare parts

作　　者：张永莉[1] 梁京[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学经济与管理学院,天津300300

出　　处：《中国民航大学学报》2014年第1期92-96,共5页Journal of Civil Aviation University of China

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项(ZXH 2009C010);中国民航大学科研启动基金项目(06qd10x)

摘　　要：航材需求预测是航材科学管理的基础,从航材需求预测对象及其特点出发,分别论述了针对平缓型、间歇型、块状型和随机型需求的预测方法研究成果,总结了国内外在研究方法上的不同和差距,提出了航材需求预测系统的初步设想,希望能为中国航材需求预测研究提供参考,为航材管理决策提供支持。Demand forecasting is the basis of scientific management of aircraft spare parts. Starting from the characteristics of aircraft spare parts demand, forecasting methods are discussed, which corresponds to different demand types of slow movi^g, intermittent, lumpy and erratic demand; then the differences in research method between Chi- nese and foreign scholars are summarized; finally aircraft spare parts demand forecasting system is proposed, providing reference for aircraft spare parts demand forecasting study and support for the aircraft spare parts ma- nagement decision making.

关 键 词：航材 需求预测 预测方法 航材管理 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] V267[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航制造工程]