地气要素结合的廊坊地区暴雨落区预报方法  

Forecast Method of Earth-Atmosphere Elements Binding of Heavy Rainstorm Location in Langfang Region

作　　者：郭立平[1,2] 汤懋苍[3] 杨德保[2] 

机构地区：[1]河北省廊坊市气象局,廊坊065000 [2]兰州大学大气科学学院,兰州730000 [3]中国科学院寒旱区陆面过程与气候变化重点实验室中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,兰州730000

出　　处：《高原气象》2014年第1期270-276,共7页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：河北省气象局科研开发项目(10KY25)

摘　　要：从地气耦合的观点出发,利用1980-2009年冀中廊坊地区暴雨资料、MICAPS资料、地面0 cm、地下10 cm和20 cm地温资料,以及气温、水汽压和气压等地面气象要素资料,详细分析了廊坊地区暴雨天气过程的地气要素分布、变化特征、配置关系以及暴雨落点预报等问题。结果表明:(1)廊坊地区暴雨主要出现在4-10月,单点暴雨、局部暴雨是该地区暴雨最突出的特征之一;(2)每一次暴雨过程都是一个非常复杂的地气耦合相互作用过程,大范围强暴雨通常还有在热带海洋上生成,携带大量水汽登陆北上的热带气旋等含有水圈贡献的参与影响;(3)地面0 cm、地下10 cm和20 cm日平均温度分别在25,24和23℃以上的时段与暴雨的发生时段有较好的一致性;(4)地气要素的分布、变化与配置对暴雨预报有较好的参考价值,而地气要素高点对暴雨落点有重要的预报指示意义;(5)在识别暴雨天气影响系统的基础上,从地气耦合的观点出发,充分考虑地气要素的分布与配置特征,叠加互补各地气要素高点对暴雨落点预报是一个有效的途径。Based on the viewpoint of earth-atmosphere coupling, using the data of heavy rainstorm, MICAPS, surface temperature. 10 cm and 20 cm soil temperatures ,air temperature, water vapor pressure, pressure in Lang- fang region from 1980 to 2009, the distributions and changing characteristics and configuration relationship of earth-atmosphere elements and location forecast of heavy rainstorm weather processes in Langfang region were analyzed in detail. The results are as follows： （1） The heavy rainstorm mainly occurs from April to October, single-point heavy rainstorm and partial heavy rainstorm is one of the outstanding characteristics of heavy rain- storm in Langfang region; （2） Each of the rainstorm processes is a very complicated process of earth-atmosphere coupling and interaction, the heavy rainstorm through Langfang region also has the effect of landing northbound tropical cyclones which carries a large amount of water vapour and occurs on the tropical sea and includes the contribution of hydrosphere ; （3） The period time of heavy rainstorm is to take place in the same period of 25, 24 and 23~C of the surface temperature, 10 cm and 20 cm soil temperatures in Langfang region; （4） The distri- bution and changing and configuration characteristics of earth-atmosphere elements have important reference value for heavy rainstorm location forcast, the high spots of earth-atmosphere elements have important forecast signifi- cance for heavy rainstorm location in Langfang region; （ 5 ） On the basis of identification of rainstorm weather system, from the viewpoint of earth-atmosphere coupling, considering the distribution and configuration charac- teristics of earth-atmosphere elements fully, superposing and complementing the earth-atmosphere elements is the effective way for heavy rainstorm location forecast.

关 键 词：暴雨 地气耦合 暴雨落点 地气要素结合 

分 类 号：P456.9[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]