中国钢铁产业产能过剩的影响因素分析  

The Analysis of Influencing Factors in Chinese Iron and Steel Industry Overcapacity

作　　者：张群[1] 冯梅[1] 于可慧[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学东凌经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2014年第2期191-202,共12页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(11BJY079)

摘　　要：本文运用向量自回归方法选取固定资产投资额、房地产施工面积增速、钢材出口率、钢铁产业集中度、铁矿石价格和地方政府投资增速等指标,对中国钢铁产业产能过剩的影响因素进行定性和定量分析,得出上述六个指标是钢铁产能过剩的重要影响因素,并提出了相关政策建议。This paper selects fixed assets investment, the growth rate of real estate construction area, steel export rate, the concentration of the iron and steel industry, iron ore prices and local government investment growth indexes, using vector auto-regression method to analyze the influencing factors of Chinese iron and steel overcapacity. It concludes that the six indicators are important influencing factors of excess capacity and put forward relevant policy suggestions.

关 键 词：产能过剩 影响因素 VAR模型 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]