房地产宏观调控影响下的房价与租金关系研究——基于中国35个大中城市面板数据的实证分析  

The Relationship between Real Estate Price and Rent under the Effect of Macro-control:Empirical Evidence from Thirty-Five Large and Medium Scale Cities of China

作　　者：张所地[1] 赵华平[1] 李斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学管理科学与工程学院,山西太原030031

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2014年第2期305-316,共12页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70973072);国家自然科学基金项目(70573066);教育部人文社科青年基金项目(12YJCZH098);山西省高等学校哲学社会科学研究项目(2012233)

摘　　要：本文通过对我国35个大中城市1998-2010年的房屋销售价格指数和房屋租赁价格指数的研究发现,在房地产宏观调控影响下的房价和租金之间的关系因城市而异。杭州、上海、广州、青岛等东部经济区沿海城市,房价与租金呈现正相关关系,由于投资性需求占主导,使得租金变动对房价的影响较大,房价变动对租金的影响较小;银川、昆明、太原、西安、呼和浩特等中西部经济区城市,房价与租金也呈现正相关关系,但房地产市场更多为刚性需求,使得租金变动对房价的影响较小,房价变动对租金的影响最大;南宁、武汉、兰州、大连、成都、乌鲁木齐等城市,由于流动人口相对较少,房地产销售市场和租赁市场具有竞争性和替代性,使得房价与租金呈现负相关关系.通过调控政策对房价和租金的影响分析发现,我国大多数城市房价和租金一路上扬,实施的宏观调控政策没有达到预期效果,其原因在于调控期间的城市经济发展、物价变动、流动人口构成、房地产供给结构、国家扶持性政策(如西部大开发政策、海南国际旅游岛建设发展政策)等影响了人们的预期,从而制约了调控效果.因此,国家房地产宏观调控政策必须与其他相关政策配套实施,而且要对不同城市实施差异性政策,才能有效达到调控的预期目标.There are different correlations between housing sale price and rental price in different cities which are found by analyzing housing sale price index and housing rent price index of thirty-five large and medium scale cities of China from 1998 to 2010. These detailed results are as follows： there are positive correlations that are the more impact of rent change on price and the less impact of price change on rent in the coastal cities of the eastern economic zone, such as Hangzhou, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Qingdao, and etc. because investment demands are dominant in their real estate market, there are positive correlations that are the more impact of price change on rent and the less impact of rent change on price in some cities of the middle and western economic zone, such as Yinchuan, Kunming, Taiyuan, Xi＇an, Hohhot, and etc. due to more rigid demand in their real estate market, and there are negative correlations in some-cities, such as Nanning, Wuhan, Lanzhou, Dalian, Chengdu, Urumqi, and etc, because floating population are less and sale market and rental market of these cities are competitive and alternative. The effects of real estate macro-control policy in China from 1998 to 2010 were not significant for most large and middle scale cities, because they are affected by some other factors, such as urban economic development, consumer price change, floating population composition, real estate supply structure and the national support policies, on people＇s expectations. Therefore, the real estate macro-control policy must be implemented on the support of other relevant policies, and should be differently implemented for different cities so as to effectively realize the target of macro-control.

关 键 词：房价 租金 宏观调控 面板数据 变系数模型 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济] O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]