预期、投机与中国城市房价泡沫  

Expectations,Speculation and Urban Real Estate Bubble in China

作　　者：高波 王辉龙 李伟军 

机构地区：[1]南京大学经济学院/南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《金融研究》2014年第2期44-58,共15页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"我国城市住房制度改革研究"(项目编号:10JZD0025);国家社会科学基金重点项目"扩大内需与引导住房理性消费的宏观经济政策研究"(项目编号:08AJY010);国家社科基金青年项目(12CJY018);江苏省博士后科研资助计划(编号:1202089C);"江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目"的资助

摘　　要：本文构建预期均衡价格模型，选用1999—2011年中国30个大中城市的面板数据，对这些城市房价偏离经济基本面的程度进行评价，运用房价收入比对住宅市场泡沫进行探讨，并分析了东中西部城市房价的区域差异及其原因。从时间维度来看，几乎所有样本城市的房价经历了泡沫出现、加速膨胀和逐步缓解的过程。从空间维度来看，绝大多数城市房价偏离了经济基本面，东部城市房地产泡沫高于中部和西部城市。面对中国大中城市房价偏离经济基本面的事实，建议继续实施房地产市场紧缩型宏观调控措施，更加注重房地产市场的预期管理和供给管理。We build a so - called expectations equilibrium price model （EEPM）. Using the panel date of 30 metropolises from 1999 to 2011 ,the paper assesses the extent of housing price deviating from economic funda- mental. Also we analyze the housing bubble with the index of ratio housing price to earnings. What＇s more, we do further research on the different regions including eastern, central and western department. From the time di- mension, almost all samples experienced the process of housing bubble appearing, expanding and gradually ease. From the spatial dimension of view, the majority of cities＇ housing prices have deviated from economic fundamental. And the housing bubbles in eastern cities are bigger than those in the central and western cities. Owing to the fact that Chinese cities＇ housing prices deviate from the economic fundamental, we recommend to continue the police of real estate market control and to pay more attention to expectation management and supply management.

关 键 词：房地产泡沫 预期均衡价格模型 区域差异 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]