基于QSIM算法的水资源管理决策过程模拟  

Simulation Study on Decision-making Process of Water Resources Management Based on QSIM Algorithm

作　　者：娄帅[1,2] 王慧敏[1,2] 牛文娟[1,2] 许叶军[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学管理科学研究所,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《系统工程》2013年第12期18-29,共12页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大资助项目12&ZD214);国家社会科学基金资助项目(10AJY00510CGL051);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2010CB951104);水利部公益性项目(201201091);2011江苏省研究生创新基金资助项目(CXLX11 0463)

摘　　要：水资源系统是一个复杂系统,而探讨缺水问题形成过程中系统变量的特征和相互之间的作用关系,进而有效调控水资源系统决策问题更是一个复杂的系统工程。本文结合"压力-状态-响应"框架分析了水资源系统的管理机理,对水资源系统进行因果分析,根据水资源系统各个变量之间的因果作用关系,设定水资源管理系统的定性模拟约束和规则。针对水资源管理过程中主要变量变化的定性模拟问题,采用QSIM算法以用水结构决策变量与节水型社会构建决策变量为示例,根据本文所提出的方法进行模拟推理,并通过模拟结果对比单一决策变量与多决策变量对水资源系统状态的影响,所得结果符合实际情况,对水资源管理决策的实际制定具有指导意义。Water system is a complex system, and effective control of the water resources system decision is a more complicated system engineering through exploring the system variables characteristics and variable＇s interactions during the formation of water shortages. In this paper the management mechanism of water resources system is analyzed by combining the frame of ＂Pressure-State-Response＇. Aiming at analyzing the change of the main parameters in the water resources management process, we apply the qualitative consequence and QSIM algorithm to the qualitative simulation of water re^urces decision. According to the action between the correlative factors in water resources management system, the constraints and regulations of qualitative simulation are framed. This paper takes the decision variables of water utilization structure and water-saving society construction for example. Then simulation reasoning is conducted by using the qualitative reasoning and analysis method based on QSIM algorithm. A contrast is made between the affection of single decision variable and multi-decision variables on the state of water resources system. The result from the example accords with practice, which is meaningful in the actual decision-making of water resources management.

关 键 词：水资源管理 定性模拟 压力-状态-响应 用水结构 节水型社会 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]