利用网络数据分析我国活禽市场与人感染H7N9禽流感病例的地理关系  

Investigation of geographic relationship between farmer＇ s market with live birds and humaninfections with avian influenza A （H7N9） virus based on internet data analysis

作　　者：于伟文[1,2,3] 杜鹏程[1,2] 陈晨[1,2] 卢珊[1,2] 阚飙[1,2] 杜孝平[3] 徐建国[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所,北京102206 [2]传染病预防控制国家重点实验室感染性疾病诊治协同创新中心 [3]北京航空航天大学软件学院

出　　处：《中华流行病学杂志》2014年第3期266-270,共5页Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金（81290345）;国家科技重大专项（2011ZXl0004-001）

摘　　要：目的探讨利用互联网数据分析活禽市场与人感染H7N9禽流感病例之间的地理关系。方法利用网络大数据的方法，对人感染H7N9禽流感病例附近的活禽市场开展基于地理位置和可及性研究，搜索全部有病例报告地区的活禽市场，分析不同城市间活禽市场密度、人群密度、禽类生产密度等因素。结果对42个报告病例的地级以上城市10615个活禽市场与病例所在地的距离分析表明，发病例数与常住人口密度、市场数量及其密度呈正相关性；在已报告的13个H7N9禽流感病毒检测阳性活禽市场中，除广东佛山市的3个市场外，其余都在5km内发现病例，表明活禽交易与病例的居住地分布密切相关；共识别出13个病例较集中的热点区域，分布在杭州、深圳等市。结论H7N9禽流感病毒检测阳性活禽市场所在城市的报告病例数明显高于其他城市，且影响范围多在5km范围内，应重新审视农贸活禽市场在城市中的布局和设置。Objective Farmer＇ s markets with live birds （FMLB） are key sites where human infections by influenza A virus subtype H7N9 happened. Approximately 80% cases have exposed to FMLB. This study is to investigate the geographic relationship between FMLB and human cases based on analysis of internet data of their geographic locations. Methods Using big data from internet, we searched all FMLB in the cities where the human cases have been reported, then analyzed geographic relations, and evaluated the possibility of visits of the patients to the FMLB around them. The densities of FMLB, population and live poultries were also analyzed. Results Forty-two cities and 10 615 markets were included in the study. It is indicated that the number of human cases has positive correlations with the population density, the number and density of markets. Except three markets in Foshan, human cases have been reported within 5 km of 10 of 13 markets, which shows that the live bird trading is highly relevant with the distribution of cases. We identified 13 hot spots in the cities including Hangzhou, Shenzhen, et al, where clustered cases have emerged. Conclusion The numbers of human cases are significantly high in cities where FMLB are detected positive for H7N9 virus. These virus positive markets usually affect the people＇ s residence within 5km area. The number and location of FMLB in cities should be re-evaluated and re-planed for healthy city where the risk of residents infecting avian influenza virus is greatly reduced or eliminated.

关 键 词：H7N9禽流感病毒 禽类交易市场 风险预测 实时网络信息技术 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]