辽宁海城7.3级地震预报历史事件的研究与讨论  

Study and Discussion on Some Historical Events in the Prediction of the Ms 7.3 Earthquake in Haicheng, Liaoning Province

作　　者：郭安宁[1] 吴建华[1] 任栋[1] 张纬超 张向红[1] 赵乘程[1] 季婉婧[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局兰州地震研究所

出　　处：《西北地震学报》2013年第B12期21-45,共25页Northwestern Seismological Journal

基　　金：国家科技部公益专项(201208001);国家科技部公益专项(8-44);甘肃省科技档案项目(2013-2)

摘　　要：针对1975年辽宁海城7．3级地震预报，对某些历史事实进行了订实，对其预报的偶然性与必然性进行了分析，并对”1975年海城地震预报”一文的某些观点和史实进行了讨论。On the basis of the introduction of Predicting the 1975 Haicheng Earthquake published on Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, we further discuss the earthquake predic- tion event of Haicheng --Yingkou MsT. 3 earthquake in Liaoning which occurred on February 3, 1975, complement and correct the process of some forecast events. Based on the discussion of some points of this article, we focus on the analysis of inevitability and fortuity of the prediction process and result. We make dialectical analysis of the whole prediction process by dividing it into several parts, and believe that in the long-term and short term prediction about Haicheng earth- quake, there is more inevitability, while in the impending prediction there is more fortuity, which resides in the inevitability. The prediction about Haicheng earthquake can＇t be simply attributed to the prediction process of ＂small earthquakes are active, then strong earthquake come＂, but a comprehensive view consisting of a series of prediction elements, which still has an inheritable value in the study of Haicheng earthquake prediction.

关 键 词：海城地震 预报 偶然性与必然性 

分 类 号：P316.011[天文地球—地震学]