电网运营风险预警评估的模糊故障树分析模型  

Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis Model for Grid Operation Risk Warning Evaluation

作　　者：林丽琼[1] 陈守军[1] 谭忠富[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《华东电力》2014年第2期229-235,共7页East China Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71071053)~~

摘　　要：基于模糊故障树分析法提出了一种电网运营风险预警评估指标体系的构建方法,通过将电网运营分为电网结构、电网运行、设备运检和安全管理四个系统,综合考虑各个部分对于电网运营风险方面的影响作用。首先,将各个系统指标出现异常波动作为故障事件,建立与指标评估体系相对应的模糊故障树,利用模糊数学原理确定了各个系统指标相对于电网运营风险的重要度;其次,取代一般的专家经验法获得权重,将重要度作为评价指标的权重引入评估体系中,在此基础上结合评价指标实际测量值对电运营风险水平进行综合评估;最后对综合预警评估结果利用雷达图进行风险扰动源确定,准确定位需要控制的风险指标,为电网运营风险提供一套高效准确的预警评估方法和评估流程。Based on the fuzzy fault tree analysis method, a grid operation risk warning evaluation system is proposed. By dividing the grid operation into four systems （grid structure, grid operation, equipment transportation and inspec- tion and safety management）, this paper comprehensively considers the influence of every system on grid operation risks. Firstly, take the situation where abnormal fluctuation occurs for indicators of each system as a failure event, es- tablish the fuzzy fault tree corresponding to the warning evaluation system, determine the importance degree of each indicator to grid operation risk by using the fuzzy math theory. Secondly, replace the method of expertise method to get evaluating weight, and take the importance degree as the weight of evaluation indicator. Thereupon, combine with the actual measurement to comprehensively evaluate the grid operation risk. Finally, use the radar chart to determine the risk disturbance source to accurately position the risk indicators which need to be controlled. This research can provide a highly efficient warning evaluation method and evaluation process.

关 键 词：电网运营风险预警评估 模糊故障树分析 模糊重要度 权重 雷达图 

分 类 号：TM712[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]