我国地方政府信用风险评级体系构建:框架与方法  

Study on the Construction of Credit Risk Rating System of Local Government in China: the Framework and Methods

作　　者：闫明[1] 顾炜宇[2] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学金融学院,北京100081 [2]中央财经大学经济学院,北京100081

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2014年第3期48-54,共7页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：北京市金融工作局委托课题"首都金融安全研究";中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目"中国地方金融监管体系构建研究-效能观点"(项目号2013T60221)

摘　　要：我国地方政府信用风险评级体系构建是防范地方政府债务风险的基础工程,但有说服力的评级体系尚未形成。我们认为地方政府评级不仅要考虑在评级模型中对违约概率直接相关的地方政府财政收入指标、地方政府财政支出指标与地方政府债务指标,同时还要考虑对评级模型中关键要素未来发展趋势产生重要影响的宏观经济政策指标、地方经济发展状况指标、地方政府治理水平、地方政府公共产品投融资模式选择等内容。另外,笔者采用问卷调查法和聚类分析方法,在专家意见和2013年国家统计年鉴数据基础上,确定了指标权重和评级标准。The construction of Credit risk rating system of local government in China is the basic project to prevent the local government debt risk, but convincing rating system has not yet formed. The local government credit risk rating should not only consider the local government revenue index, local government fiscal expenditure index and local government debt index, that directly related to the probability of default in the credit rating model, but also consider the factors that produce important influence to the trend of the key factors in rating model, such as macroeconomic policy indicators, indicators of local economic development, local governance, the investment and financing mode in local public product, etc. In addition, using the method of questionnaire survey and Clustering a- nalysis method, basis on the experts＇ advice and the 2013 national Statistical data, we determine the index weight and evaluation standard.

关 键 词：地方政府 信用风险 评级 指标 权重 

分 类 号：F830.9[经济管理—金融学]