我国煤矿行业安全生产预警指数模型研究  

Research on forewarning model for work safety of coal mine in China

作　　者：赵代英[1,2] 何学秋[3] 江田汉[4] 

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学爆炸科学与技术国家重点实验室,北京100081 [2]天津理工大学环安学院,天津300384 [3]华北科技学院,北京101601 [4]中国安全生产科学研究院,北京100012

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2014年第1期81-86,共6页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

摘　　要：采用1982-2012年的煤矿安全生产指标数据资料,应用Hodrick-Prescott滤波法对其进行趋势分解,分析了我国煤矿安全生产的长期发展趋势和周期规律,采用安全生产指标的同比指数作为预警指数,应用二次指数平滑法对预警指数进行短期预测,并设定了预警指数模型的警限和警度,最终建立了煤矿安全生产预警指数模型。模型的运行结果表明,煤矿事故死亡人数、较大以上事故起数、煤矿百万吨死亡率和煤矿综合安全水平在今后5年内趋势向好,但仍有上下波动的可能。预警指数模型的建立及其运算结果对煤矿行业安全生产对策措施的制定有一定的指导意义。The time series data on work safety indicators of coal mine in China during 1982-2012 were studied. Firstly,the trend and periodic law of coal mine safety were analyzed by Hodrick-Prescott filtering method. Secondly,the link relative ratio of safety indicator was used as forewarning index,and it was predicted by double exponential smoothing method. Thirdly,the forewarning limit and the forewarning degree were set. At last,the work safety forewarning model of coal mine was established. The operation result of model showed that the deaths toll of work safety in coal mine,deaths rate per million coal output,frequency of accident and comprehensive safety level are in no warning status in the next 5 years,but the safety indexes still exist the characteristics of fluctuations. The application of the early warning model has significant meaning in directing the national macro decision-making on safety in certain extent.

关 键 词：煤矿安全 预警指数模型 预警指数 趋势分解 

分 类 号：TD7[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]