基于前景理论的居民出行方式选择  

Residents travel mode choice based on prospect theory

作　　者：张薇[1] 何瑞春[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学交通运输学院,兰州730070

出　　处：《计算机应用》2014年第3期749-753,共5页journal of Computer Applications

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(61364026);教育部人文社科青年基金资助项目(12YJC630200);兰州交通大学青年科学基金资助项目(2011001)

摘　　要：对于实际出行中居民心理因素对出行方式选择的影响问题,构建基于前景理论的居民出行方式选择模型,提出了一种更加符合人类思维习惯的出行方式选择方法。综合考虑居民对行程时间及出行费用两种指标的心理参照点,得出相对最能使居民满意的出行方式选择结果;通过不同参照点下出行方式的综合前景值的变化分析了参照点对出行方式的选择的影响;最后通过实例说明了此方法在出行方式选择中的应用。实验结果表明:行程时间参照点要求较低的小范围内居民倾向于公交出行,尽管出租车与私家车出行方式综合前景值趋势变化一致,但更大范围内的居民倾向于私家车出行,这与实际相符。所提方法为预测居民出行方式提供了一种新的途径。Concerning the influence of resident＇s psychological factors on travel mode choice in the actual travel, a travel mode choice model based on prospect theory was established and a choice method more according to human thinking habits was put forward. Considering psychological reference points of travel time and travel cost comprehensively, satisfied travel mode to resident was obtained. The influence of reference point on travel mode was analyzed by comparing changes of comprehensive prospect value under different reference points. Finally an example gave the application of this travel mode choice method. The experimental results show that residents in the minority whose expectation of travel time is lower prefer bus travel, although the comprehensive prospect value changes of taxi and private car are identical. More residents tend to use private car mode, which is consistent with the fact. The proposed method provides a new way to predict resident travel mode.

关 键 词：前景理论 出行方式选择 情景 参照点 前景值 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理] TP391[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]