基于智能体响应均衡模型的经济政策–电力需求动态模拟  

Dynamic Simulation of Economic Policy and Electricity Demand by Agents Response Equilibrium Model

作　　者：段炜[1] 胡兆光[1] 吴思竹[2] 周渝慧[1] 姚明涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学电气工程学院,北京市海淀区100044 [2]北京朗新明环保科技有限公司,北京市海淀区100039

出　　处：《中国电机工程学报》2014年第7期1206-1212,共7页Proceedings of the CSEE

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(E12JB00020)~~

摘　　要：为了研究经济政策对电力需求的影响,利用智能体响应均衡模型(agents response equilibrium,ARE)构建了经济政策对电力需求影响的模拟系统。介绍ARE模型模拟经济政策对经济和电力需求影响的机理,设计行业、居民、银行、政府和市场智能体(Agent),描述了智能体的结构及其交互机制,模拟系统能实时输出商品价格曲线和行业产值曲线,专家以此可以分析经济运行情况并调整模型中的政策变量;同时比较减税后经济发展和电力需求的变化,分析了政策变化对行业电力需求的影响,分析结果可为决策者研究经济政策对电力需求的影响提供参考。To analyze the impact of the economic policy on the electricity demand, the dynamic power simulation system was established based on the agents response equilibrium （ARE） model. This paper introduced the mechanism of the economic policy and designed industry agent, resident agent, bank agent, government agent, and the market agent. The structure of the agents and the interaction principles among them were described. Meanwhile, the simulation system can depict price curves, output value curves of each commodity in the economic system. Experts could adjust the policy in response to the volatility in the economy. Economic operation and electricity demand under tax-cut policy, and the industrial electricity demand change with respect to the policy were studied. The analysis results can provide reference for the decision maker to research the influence of economic policies on electricity demand.

关 键 词：智能体响应均衡 经济政策 动态模拟 电力需求 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]