非线性定价组合与电力需求——基于中国居民微观数据的实证研究  

Nonlinear Pricing Policy Mix and Electricity Demand——Empirical Evidences from Micro-data from China's Residential Consumers

作　　者：冯永晟[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院,北京100836

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2014年第2期45-57,共13页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"利用非线性定价促进能源节约的基础理论和实证研究"(批准号G030602)

摘　　要：本文首次回答了消费者在面临非线性定价组合时如何形成认知价格的问题,并首次利用微观数据研究了中国居民的长期电力需求函数,为评估居民电价政策提供了基础依据。居民用户在面对峰谷和阶梯定价组合时会将峰段边际价格和总量平均价格作为认知价格;居民电力需求的长期总量平均价格弹性约在0.501—0,625,电力需求缺乏弹性。峰谷和阶梯定价组合的实际政策效果有限且潜在政策空间同样有限;阶梯定价的推广客观上有利于逐渐扭转电价长期偏低的局面和解决补贴问题,但峰谷定价会对阶梯定价的政策效果产生一定抵消作用;政府缺乏实行有效规制定价的能力,在电价政策上面临多个复杂权衡;要警惕以电价改革延缓电力市场化改革的风险,非线性定价政策的效果最终取决于市场的形成和竞争的引入,而非定价方式本身。For the first time, this paper answers the question whether consumers will form more than one perceived prices when facing a mix of block pricing and peak-load pricing, and investigates the long-run residential electricity demand function using micro-data of China. Residential consumers use the overall average price and the peak marginal price as the perceived prices for optimizing their consuming behaviors. The long-term average-price elasticity ranges 0.501-0.625, implying a less elastic demand response. The empirical results imply that the policy effect of peak-load-block pricing combination on enhancing demand response is limited, and its potential is also limited. The nation-wide promulgation of block pricing policy helps to gradually change the low-price situation and resolve the problem of subsidization, but its actual effects might be offset to some extent by the introduction of peak-load pricing. The government lacks the regulatory capacities of implementing efficient pricing policies and faces several key tradeoffs on the decision of pricing options. A caution is given that the structural and modal reform of electricity institution might be hindered in the name of pushing regulatory pricing reform. The final effects of pricing policies lie on the formation of marketplace and introduction of competition, not the policies per se.

关 键 词：居民电力需求 阶梯定价 峰谷定价 认知价格 

分 类 号：F124.1[经济管理—世界经济]