在役腐蚀管道动态非概率可靠性分析  

Time-dependent non-probability reliability analysis of corroded pipeline in service

作　　者：魏宗平[1] 

机构地区：[1]宝鸡文理学院机电工程系,陕西宝鸡721016

出　　处：《工程设计学报》2014年第1期27-31,共5页Chinese Journal of Engineering Design

基　　金：陕西省教育厅科研计划项目(09JK333);宝鸡文理学院重点科研计划项目(ZK10142)

摘　　要：腐蚀失效是压力管道失效的主要形式之一,研究腐蚀管道的可靠性具有重要理论意义和应用价值.在对腐蚀管道可靠性分析时,概率可靠性模型和模糊可靠性模型对于数据信息的要求较高.而在掌握不确定性信息很少情况下,为了充分利用管道的不确定性信息弥补原始数据的不足,可将腐蚀管道可靠性分析中的材料屈服强度、管道直径、缺陷深度和操作压力等不确定参数视为区间变量,基于区间模型建立一种在役腐蚀管道动态非概率可靠性模型,给出了腐蚀管道剩余寿命预测的简便方法.结合工程实例计算与分析,表明了文中所提出方法的可行性和合理性,并在此基础上,分析了管道的壁厚、缺陷深度、实际压力和腐蚀速率这些区间变量的不同变异系数对非概率可靠性指标的影响,分析结果表明非概率可靠性指标对管道壁厚的变异系数最为敏感.Corrosion is one of the primary failure mode of pressurized pipelines .Research on relia-bility of the corroded pipelines has important theoretical significance and application value .Ade-quate data is necessary for probabilistic reliability model and fuzzy reliability model used to ana-lyze the reliability of corroded pipelines .In case of insufficient information was available ,the un-certain parameters of yield strength ,pipeline diameter ,defect depths ,operating pressure and so on were described as interval variables to make up the gap by using the uncertain information of the corroded pipelines well .Time-dependent non-probability reliability model of the corroded pipeline in service was established based on the interval model .A simple method for the remaining life prediction of the corroded pipelines was given .A numerical example had been used to illustrate the proposed method .T he result show s that the proposed method is feasible and reasonable and procticable .Finally a sensitivity analysis was carried out on interval variables involved in the problem .The effects of the coefficient of variation of pipeline wall thickness ,defect depths ,oper-ating pressures and corrosion velocity on non-probability reliability index of the corroded pipelines were evaluated .The results of sensitivity analysis indicate that the non-probability reliability in-dex is the most sensitive to the coefficient of variation of pipeline wall thickness interval variable .

关 键 词：腐蚀管道 区间变量 动态非概率可靠性 剩余寿命 

分 类 号：TE973[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备] O213.2[理学—概率论与数理统计]