工业化城镇化对农民增收影响的空间计量分析——基于安徽省县域数据  

Spatial Econometrical Analysis of the Impact of Industrialization and Urbanization on Farmers' Income:Data from Counties in Anhui Province

作　　者：郇红艳[1,2] 谭清美[1] 孙君[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京211106 [2]阜阳师范学院经济与管理学院,安徽阜阳236041 [3]无锡商业职业技术学院工商管理学院,江苏无锡214153

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2014年第2期75-82,共8页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：江苏省哲学社会科学重点项目<江苏城乡经济一体化系统演进与发展模式研究>(10EYA001);安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目<现代农业三维目标体系及实现路径研究>(AHSK11-12D224);安徽省教育厅人文社科基地重点项目<产业转移;农民工流动与区域经济协调发展>(SK2013A134);江苏社会科学基金项目<用工短缺与江苏产业升级研究>(11EYD045);安徽质量工程教研项目<基于能力培养的经管类〈统计学〉课程实践教学体系整合与效能评价>(2012jyxm338)

摘　　要：基于2000-2010年安徽省县域农民人均纯收入数据,利用探索性空间数据分析方法测度农民收入空间相关性和局部集聚空间格局演变,分别建立2000年、2005年和2010年农民收入空间杜宾模型和空间滞后模型,研究工业化城镇化发展对农民增收的影响程度及变化趋势。研究结果表明:安徽农村居民收入存在明显的地域差异,呈正的空间自相关性,低收入集聚区沿安徽西侧边境向西南和西北部转移,高收入集聚区沿皖江城市带从苏皖边境向皖中地区扩张;空间计量模型能够分离出收入空间溢出效应,避免经典回归对工业化城镇化影响程度的高估;工业化发展促进农民增收作用增强,但可能出现虹吸效应;不完全的城镇化发展对农民增收作用减弱,应发挥其扩散效应;农业现代化促进农民增收效果不明显。According to the data of per capita net income of farmers from counties in Anhui Province during 2000--2010, this paper uses the method of exploratory spatial data analysis to measure the changes of spatial correlation and clustering spatial pattern of farmers＇ income, establishes spatial Durbin model and spatial lag model of farmers＇ income respectively for 2000, 2005 and 2010, studied the impact degree and tendencies of the development of industrialization and urbanization on farmers＂ income. The results show that the income of rural residents in Anhui province has obvious regional differentiation, which is in a positive spatial autocorrelation, meaning low-income concentration areas are those along the west border to southwest and northwest, while highincome concentration areas are from Jiangsu-Anhui border to central Anhui along Wanjiang Urban Belt. Spatial econometric model can separate space spillover effects of income, avoiding the overestimation of effects degree of classical regression on the industrialization and urbanization. It shows that the industrialization development is increasingly increasing farmers＇ income, but there may occur the siphoning effect. As incomplete urbanization development has weakened impact on farmers＇ income, we should play its diffusion effects Modernization of agriculture does not have obvious effects on farmers＇ income.

关 键 词：工业化 城镇化 农民收入 空间自相关 空间计量模型 

分 类 号：F291.1[经济管理—国民经济] F014.4