深部咸水层CO_2地质封存数值模拟参数的全局敏感性分析——以苏北盆地盐城组为例  

Global Parametric Sensitivity Analysis of Numerical Simulation for CO_2 Geological Sequestration in Saline Aquifers: A Case Study of Yancheng Formation in Subei Basin

作　　者：郑菲[1] 施小清[1] 吴吉春[1] 赵良[1] 陈旸[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学地球科学与工程学院,南京210093

出　　处：《吉林大学学报（地球科学版）》2014年第1期310-318,共9页Journal of Jilin University：Earth Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41172206);江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK2012313);江苏省产学研联合创新资金计划项目(BY2010136)

摘　　要：基于对苏北盆地盐城组下段砂岩储层概化建立二维径向剖面模型,运用TOUGH2/ECO2N程序模拟深部咸水层中CO2迁移分布过程。采用定性(Morris法)和定量(Sobol和EFAST法)全局敏感性分析方法,以储层中注入井处的压力、气相CO2总量及CO2气相羽扩散距离作为模型响应变量,对储层的水平渗透率、孔隙度、残余液体饱和度、孔隙分布指数、压缩系数、进气压力的倒数和盐度7个参数进行全局敏感性分析,讨论了咸水层的水文地质参数、盐度及其他模型参数对CO2封存运移泄漏过程的影响。Morris和Sobol法的敏感性分析结果都表明,对于不同的响应变量,参数的敏感性排序不同:以注入井处的压力为响应变量时,孔隙度的敏感性最高;以气相CO2总量和CO2羽扩散距离为响应变量时,水平渗透率的敏感性最高。EFAST 1阶及总敏感度分析结果与Sobol分析结果基本一致,但EFAST法相对Sobol法计算更高效稳健,需要的样本数较少。TOUGH2/ECO2N code was used to simulate the complex coupled processes taking place during and after CO2 injection in the deep saline sandstone aquifer of Lower Yancheng Formation in Subei basin . Morris , Sobol and EFAST methods were used to analyze the global sensitivity of parameters ,i .e .,kx ,n ,Slr ,λ,C ,1/p0 and S ,on three response variables ：1）the pressure located in＆amp;nbsp;the injection well ;2）the amount of gas-phase CO2 and 3）the spread distance of CO2 gas plume .Results from the Morris and Sobol methods show that n is the most sensitive parameter for the injection well pressure ,kx is the most sensitive parameter both for the amount of gas-phase CO2 and the spread distance of CO2 gas plume .In summary ,the sensitivity orders of these parameters are totally different for different corresponding variables .Comparative results from EFAST and Sobol show that the main and total effect obtained from the two quantitative sensitivity analysis methods are basically identical , however ,EFAST is computationally more efficient than Sobol in numerical experiment .

关 键 词：CO2 地质封存 全局敏感性分析 Morris法 Sobol法 EFAST法 苏北盆地 

分 类 号：P641[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]