应对气候变化的最优经济增长研究  

The Research of Optimal Economic Growth Based on Tackling Climate Change

作　　者：柳亚琴[1,2] 赵国浩[3] 

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学信息管理学院,山西太原,山西太原030031 [2]山西西财经大学统计学院,山西太原,山西太原030006 [3]山西财经大学管理科学与工程学院,山西太原,山西太原030031

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2014年第2期9-17,共9页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“应对气候变化的煤炭资源低碳化利用理论与政策研究”(编号:71173141);国家自然科学基金项目“煤炭资源优化配置的理论与政策研究”(编号:70873079);山西省软科学研究项目“煤炭价格波动特征分析与山西宏观经济关系研究”(编号:2013041015-04);山西省国际科技合作项目“山西煤炭资源低碳化利用技术路径研究”(编号:2013081070);山西省高校重点学科建设项目“资源型企业可持续发展研究”(编号:晋教研[2010]7号)

摘　　要：如何在确保经济平稳发展的前提下减少CO2排放量,从而达到社会经济发展与生态环境保护双赢的一种经济发展形态,成为世界各国共同研究和探讨的焦点。与此同时,在发达国家应对气候变化行动如火如荼之际,作为世界上最大的发展中国家,我国提出到2020年CO2排放强度比2005年降低40%-45%。论文根据这一约束指标,创新性地把CO2减排控制率引入传统的Cobb-Douglas生产函数,构建应对气候变化的最优经济增长模型,利用偏最小二乘回归方法分别计算基准情景和低碳经济发展情景下2020年的最优经济增长率,得到以下结论:基准情景下最优经济增长率为8.30%;在低碳经济发展情景中,2020年CO2排放强度降低40%和45%减排控制下最优经济增长率分别为7.67%和7.52%。在此基础上,参考两种不同的经济发展情景假设,对2020年经济产出、能源消费需求量和CO2排放量进行预测,最后提出推动能源、经济与环境协调可持续发展的低碳政策建议。It has become a common focus of research and discussion in all countries around the world about how to reduce carbon dioxide emissions while ensuring steady economic development to achieve a win-win economic development pattern of social economic development and ecological protection. Meanwhile, when the developed country takes more and more action to tackle climate change action, the biggest developing country, China, will commit to reducing carbon dioxide emission intensity by 40% to 45% of 2005 levels by 2020. According to the constraint target, we put the CO2 emission control rate into the traditional Cobb-Douglas production function, built the model of optimal economic growth based on tackling climate change and got the optimal economic growth rate on the baseline scenario and low-carbon economy development scenario by 2020 by use of Partial Least-Squares Regression in this paper. There are two results as follows ： on the baseline scenario, the optimal economic growth rate is 8.30% ; and on the low carbon economy development scenario, the optimal economic growth rate is separately 7.67% and 7.52% under the two different controls of reducing carbon dioxide emission intensity by 40% and 45% in 2020. On this basis, we forecast economic output, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions refer to two different scenarios on economic development. Finally, some policy suggestions promoting the sustainable development of energy, the economy and the environment have been put forward.

关 键 词：应对气候变化 最优经济增长 CO2减排控制率 偏最小二乘回归 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济]