城镇化对政府投资与民间投资的差异性影响  

Empirical Study on the Disparate Impact on Government Investment and Private Investment by Urbanization

作　　者：张秀利[1] 祝志勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南大学经济管理学院,重庆400715

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2014年第2期54-59,共6页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：重庆市社会科学规划项目"重庆市民营经济支持政策效果的评价指标体系构建与实证研究"(编号:2012QNJJ057);国家社会科学基金项目"目前县乡财政现状及对策研究"(编号:07XJY035);教育部中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目"宅基地使用权流转的利益平衡机制研究--以重庆的实践为例"(编号:SWU1009044)

摘　　要：以劳动力转移为主要内容的城镇化、政府投资与民间投资是发展中国家的重要内生变量,文章首次将三者结合起来,将政府投资与民间投资置于城镇化的分析框架,研究城镇化进程中政府投资与民间投资的相互关系以及城镇化进程对两者的差异性影响。通过单位根检验、协整检验、建立滞后一期和滞后二期的误差修正模型及Granger因果关系检验后发现:城镇化对政府投资与民间投资的影响存在显著差异,城镇化与政府投资存在长期稳定的均衡关系而与民间投资不存在这种关系,城镇化进程中政府投资对民间投资具有一定程度上的挤出效应;从城镇化与政府投资关系的动态演化看,城镇化并没有引起政府投资的变化而是相反,因此我国的城镇化推进采取的是政府主导型模式而非市场主导型,作为主要投资主体的政府以大规模财政资金进行固定资产投资进而推动了城镇化进程,政府投资是我国城镇化进程的重要导因;政府投资对城镇化的推进具有滞后效应,政府投资存在绩效损失。我国现有的城镇化模式是一种典型的政府主导型模式,是我国政府主导型经济发展模式在城镇化问题上的延伸,政府政治人的角色决定了其具有不计成本实现施政目标的特性,从长期看,政府投资由于效率低下而应让位于民间投资,当前政府主导型的城镇化模式必须转变为市场主导型模式。为此应界定城镇化推进中政府投资的边界和范围,削弱不符合经济规律的直接干预、全力打造服务性政府,鼓励民间资本参与城镇化投资,并提高城镇化推进中政府投资的效率。Urbanization mainly by transferring labor, government investment （GI） and private investment （PI） are important endogenous variables in developing countries. The paper combines the three for the first time and studies the disparate impact on GI and PI by urbanization. Through ADF test, co-integration test, ECM model with one and two years lagged and Granger test, the paper finds that urbanization has a long-term stable equilibrium relationship with GI but has no with PI, and GI has crowding-out effect on PI in urbanization. Furthermore, urbanization hasn＇t initiated change on GI but the opposite, and there is a performance loss in GI. So Chinese-type urbanization is government-dominated, and as a main investor, the government promotes urbanization by massive fiscal funds, and thus GI is a major cause in urbanization. This government-dominated urbanization model is a extension of Chinese government-dominated economic development model, and has the feature that achieves policy objectives without counting the cost. In the long run, GI should give way to PI because of its poor efficiency and the government-dominated urbanization should be transferred to market-dominated one. Therefore, the boundary of GI should be delimited, the direct intervention which does not comply with the market economy should be weakened, the PI should be encouraged in urbanization and the efficiency of GI should be improved.

关 键 词：政府投资 民间投资 差异性影响 政府主导型城镇化 

分 类 号：F290[经济管理—国民经济]