沿海城市生态安全作用机理及系统仿真研究  

Analysis and Simulation Study on the Coastal Urban Ecological Security Action Mechanism

作　　者：秦晓楠[1] 卢小丽[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学管理与经济学部,辽宁大连116023

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2014年第2期60-68,共9页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大国际合作项目"绿色增长理论与实践的国际比较研究"(编号:71320107006);国家自然科学基金项目"不可再生资源全生命周期效率提升的能力建设模式研究"(编号:71073016);国家自然科学基金项目"乡村旅游发展影响因素及其驱动机制研究"(编号:41201174);教育部人文社科项目"乡村旅游发展的影响因素及其驱动机制研究"(编号:12YJC790131);辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目"辽宁省企业集群成长模式研究"(编号:L12DJY060);辽宁经济社会发展课题"加快辽宁产业集群发展路径和对策研究"(编号:2013lslktjjx-09);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金"基于DPSIR的沿海城市生态安全作用机制研究"(编号:DUT13RW419)

摘　　要：针对现有生态安全研究侧重概念模型要素之间的比较及综合评价,缺乏要素间互动关系及生态安全状况演变趋势预测的研究现状,以"驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应"(DPSIR)框架为基础,构建适用于中国沿海城市的生态安全评价指标体系。研究以原始DPSIR概念模型为基础,提出了7组因果关系假设,采用结构方程模型对假设进行测度,发现"沿海城市生态安全响应对状态起到正向作用"的研究假设被拒绝,论文根据各组假设的因果关系结果构建出中国沿海城市生态安全DPSIR概念模型。同时研究以沿海城市DPSIR概念模型内因果链及要素间的作用系数为基础,构建了生态安全作用机制系统动力学模型,对沿海城市生态安全状态进行预测仿真。沿海城市生态安全的初始状态良好,于仿真模拟第三年(2012年)的时候变为负值,并且该状态变量的数值持续降低。通过调整模型中的主要参数,发现环境污染治理投资额、工业产值占比、第三产业占比、单位GDP能耗指数四个指标在生态安全作用机制中发挥重要作用,对改善生态安全状态起到显著影响。本文选取上海、烟台、温州、海口四类典型沿海城市对生态安全状态进行情景模拟,发现:上海生态安全状态恶化速度最快,于仿真第三年转变为负值;烟台、温州生态安全状态的演化趋势在前5年基本一致,其中烟台的生态安全状态演化曲线逐渐陡峭,反映其生态安全状态逐渐劣于温州;海口的生态安全状况一直优于其他三个城市,其生态安全系统演变曲线最为平缓。The exiting research on ecological security applying the concept models mainly focuses on establishing the assessment index system, which have ignored the quantitative study of the causal relationship among the elements in the concept models, and lacked the evolution trend analysis of ecological security system. This study, based on the conceptual mode of ＇＂ Driver, Pressure, State, Impacts, Response＂ （DPSIR）, develops an ecological security index system for Chinese coastal cities. In accordance with the original DPSIR concept model, it puts forward 7 groups of causality hypothesis, uses the structural equation model （ SEM ） to analyze the causal relationships and effect coefficients, and reveals the action mechanism of ecological security in coastal cities. This paper reveals that： the hypothesis, which is ＂the response （R） has played a positive role to the state （S）＂ is rejected （TH7 = 0. 777）, and further constructs the coastal urban DPSIR model according to the other 6 groups of causal relationships. Based on the causal relationships and effect coefficient of coastal urban DPSIR concept model, it builds the dynamic mechanism model of ecological security, analyzes and predicts the evolution process of coastal urban ecological security state. Coastal urban ecological security is rendered as a good initial state（ S （2010） = 0. 765 ）. In the third simulated year （2012）, its value becomes negative （S （2012） = -0. 423 ） ; the value of the state element continues to reduce. Though adjusting the parameters values, this paper puts forward four indexes which play an important role in coastal ecological security action mechanism： environment pollution governance investment, the industry output, the third industry output, and energy consumption per unit of GDP. And then those coastal cities are divided into four types. According to the four types, the scenario simulation is used to analyze the different ecological security evolution trends. The ecological security sta

关 键 词：生态安全 沿海城市 SEM模型 系统模拟 情景仿真 

分 类 号：N945[自然科学总论—系统科学] F205[经济管理—国民经济]