人口年龄结构、性别结构与居民消费——基于省际动态面板数据的实证研究  

The Relationships of Age,Sex Structure and Household Consumption:Evidence from Provincial Dynamic Panel Data

作　　者：邱俊杰[1] 李承政[2] 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学金融学院,北京100029 [2]上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院,上海200030

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2014年第2期125-131,共7页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：教育部人文社科青年项目"农户生猪养殖合作经营创新发展与金融支持政策研究"(编号:13YJCZH142);教育部人文规划项目"高等学校教师与学校的法律关系及其社会保障制度比较研究"(编号:EIA090414)

摘　　要：本文研究发现,中国居民消费不足与人口年龄结构和性别结构的变化密切相关。基于生命周期储蓄率模型逆推出居民消费率模型,利用中国1991-2011年省际面板数据对人口年龄结构、性别结构与居民消费之间的关系进行了估计,主要结论如下:少儿抚养比、老年抚养比与居民消费率正相关,人口性别比系数为正,但稳健性较差,养老保险覆盖率的上升并未显著提升居民消费率。因此,政府应继续完善养老保障制度,并在制定长期宏观经济政策时应将未来人口年龄结构变化对居民消费的影响考虑进来。There is an close relation between age, sexual structure and household consumption. The inadequate consumption arises from the changes in age and sexual structure, this paper finds out that the inadequate consumption in China is closely related with the change in demographic structure. Based on the life-cycle saving model, this paper derives a household consumption model which could reflect the impacts of the changing demographic structure on household consuming by adding young dependency ratio, old dependency ratio and sexual ratio. Using data from China at the provincial level for the period 1991 -2008, we estimate the model and the results as follows： young dependency ratio has a positive effect on household consumption rate whereas old dependency ratio has a negative effect, and the coefficient of sexual ratio is not robust. The inadequate consumption in China may be arises from the declining in young dependency ratio and the growth of old dependency ratio. Therefore, the government should take the effects of demographic change into consideration when formulating consumption policy.

关 键 词：消费率 少儿抚养比 老年抚养比 性别比 

分 类 号：F32[经济管理—产业经济]