基于PDE模型的中国人口结构预测研究  

Predictions of China's Population Structure Based on the PDF Model

作　　者：孟令国[1] 李超令 胡广[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东财经大学金融学院,广东广州510320 [2]广州银行,广东广州510075

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2014年第2期132-141,共10页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"二次人口红利与经济持续增长路径研究"(编号:12BJL027);教育部人文社科研究规划基金项目"后人口红利与经济增长后发优势培育研究"(编号:12YJA790100)

摘　　要：准确的人口结构预测是未来经济发展的重要依据。论文采用人口-发展-环境模型(PDE),以第六次全国人口普查数据为基础,设定生育率低中高三种不同方案进行推演,预测了我国2015-2050年人口结构变化走势。结果显示:若实行较低的生育率方案,即维持现行计划生育政策不变,到2050年我国人口结构将呈现非常严重老龄化状态;若实行中等生育率方案,即实施二胎计划生育政策,我国人口结构老龄化趋势将会得到明显改善,到2030年之后我国人口结构将逐渐年轻化,呈成年型人口结构;若实行较高的生育率方案,即实施较二胎政策更宽松的计划生育方案,我国人口结构将发生根本性改变,人口结构符合年轻化人口结构的特征,但将带来大量的新增人口。比较三种不同的预测结果,基于我国国情,认为实施二胎生育政策比较理想。Accurate population structure prediction is an important basis for the economic development. Based on our nation＇ s sixth national population census data, this paper forecasts the changes in the population structure from 2015 to 2050 based on 3 presupposed types of birth rates through the population-development- environment model （PDE） . Results show that： if the current family planning policy continues to keep the low birth rate, serious aging problem will arise in China＇ s population structure by 2050; if two-children family planning policy takes effect to moderately increase the birth rate, aging problem in China＇ s population structure will be curbed obviously, and adult type population structure will form with the increasing number of young people after 2030; if more than two children family planning policy is put into practice to reach a higher birth rate, dramatic changes will take place in China＇ s population structure, featured by the increasing number of younger people and a wave of new population growth. Against this background, three different forecast results suggest that the second birth control policy is the ideal one for our country.

关 键 词：人口结构 预测 生育率 死亡率 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]