云南极端旱灾应急管理模式构建研究  

Research on the Construction of Emergency Management Pattern for Extreme Droughts in Yunnan

作　　者：张乐[1,2] 王慧敏[1,2] 佟金萍[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学管理科学研究所,江苏南京210098 [3]常州大学经济管理学院,江苏常州213164

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2014年第2期161-168,共8页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"保障经济;生态和国家安全的最严格水资源管理制度体系研究"(编号:12&ZD214);国家社会科学基金"突发水灾害事件应急管理机制研究"(编号:10CGL069);国家自然科学基金青年项目"城市极端雨洪灾害预警与应急管理研究"(编号:71303074);国家自然科学基金重大培育项目"非常规突发水灾害事件的应急合作机制与建模仿真"(编号:90924047);云南省科技计划项目"云南干旱风险管理及水利适应调控研究"(编号:2010CA013);江苏省研究生培养创新工程"非常规突发水灾害应急合作的集体行动及路径选择"(编号:CXLX11_0464)

摘　　要：本文对极端干旱应急管理模式构建及应急水资源配置等问题进行了理论探讨。简要分析了极端干旱灾害的定义和内涵,整理了近年来干旱灾害管理研究进展;以云南特大干旱为例,讨论了极端干旱灾害的形成及影响,并从组织结构、制度规范等方面阐述了云南极端干旱灾害应急管理现状和存在问题;在此基础上,强调多元主体抗旱能力的积极作用,引入风险管理概念,提出基于多主体合作的极端旱灾应急管理模式;从水资源管理的角度,构建考虑预支付策略下的极端旱灾应急水资源合作储备模型,将其均衡解作为初始值,置入之后的应急水资源优化调度模型,组成极端旱灾应急水资源优化配置系统;从时间效率的角度,依据极端旱灾多主体合作应急管理模式,重构灾害应急响应流程,增设底层响应协调主体,设计并发式信息报送结构,建立极端旱灾应急响应工作流模型;并初步检验了上述模型的有效性,证明该模式具备一定可行性。最后针对云南极端干旱灾害应急管理实践,提供了一些政策建议。The modes of extreme droughts emergency management, and water allocation problem were discussed in this article. The definition of extreme droughts were briefly introduced, and relating researches were reviewed. With the case of extreme drought in Yunnan Province, after analyzing the forming and influence of extreme droughts, the present situation of extreme droughts emergency management were studied from organization structure and the institution, and the multi-agents cooperation mode of emergency water supply in Yunnan was proposed in which the active role of agents were underlined. Further, emergency water cooperative reservation and its allocation models were constructed, in which the initial values of second model are the solutions of first model. Based on the mode it previously mentioned, the workflow model of emergency response was built by using Petri Net model and the reconstitution of drought response process. The results illustrated that the multi-agents cooperation mode could be better for achieving fast response and enhancing the emergency management efficiency of extreme droughts events. At last, a few of suggestions were put forward,

关 键 词：风险管理 多主体合作 战略库存 应急水资源配置 工作流模型 

分 类 号：C935[经济管理—管理学]