基于“十二五”卫生事业发展目标我国卫生总费用预测分析  

Projection on Total Health Expenditure Based on the Goal of 12th Five Year Plan of Health Service Development

作　　者：万泉[1] 张毓辉[1] 翟铁民[1] 魏强[1] 郭锋[1] 柴培培[1] 王从从[1] 赵郁馨[1] 

机构地区：[1]卫生部卫生发展研究中心,北京100191

出　　处：《中国卫生经济》2014年第2期10-13,共4页Chinese Health Economics

摘　　要：目的:卫生事业发展"十二五"规划中对卫生总费用主要指标提出了明确的发展目标,近年来卫生总费用变化趋势提示这些目标的实现面临挑战,有必要开展预测研究。方法:以全国卫生总费用时间序列数据为基础,基于国际卫生筹资战略指标和国外政府卫生投入有关情况,结合"十二五"医改目标,进行预测分析。结果:到2015年,我国卫生总费用占GDP比重将达到5.7%,个人卫生支出占卫生总费用比重下降到30.0%。财政卫生支出年均增速应不低于22.0%。结论:积极构建政府卫生投入长效增长机制,拓宽社会筹资渠道,实现公共筹资的稳步增长,进一步优化卫生筹资结构。Objective： Specific goals of total health expenditure related indicators were proposed in 12th Five Year Plan of Health Service Development. It is necessary to conduct projection analysis for there is a challenge to achieve the goals according to the trends of the changes of total health expenditure related indicators in recent years. Methods： Using the national time serials data of total health expenditure, combining the goals of 12th Five Year Plan of Health System Reform to project China total health expenditure in 2015 based on the international strategy of health financing and the status of government health expenditure in other countries. Results： Out of pocket as share of total health expenditure will be declined to 30.0% in 2015, total health expenditure as share of GDP will be 5.7% in 2015, and the annual growth rate of government health expenditure should not be less than 22.0%. Conclusion： Long term growth mechanism of government health input should be established and social financing source should be broadened to improve public financing gradually and further optimize the financing structure.

关 键 词：中国 卫生总费用 个人卫生支出 政府卫生投入 预测 

分 类 号：R197.1[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]