基于系统动力学的武汉市私车保有量预测  

Prediction on Private Cars in Wuhan City Based on System Dynamics Model

作　　者：胡斌祥[1] 李娜[1] 刘勇[1] 郑丽[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学汽车工程学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）》2014年第1期65-68,共4页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology：Information & Management Engineering

基　　金：国家知识产权局科研基金资助项目(P82009-001)

摘　　要：通过对武汉市私车保有量影响因素的研究,建立了武汉市私车保有量的系统动力学模型,对模型进行了仿真分析,检验模型的可靠性,并对武汉市未来几年的私车保有量进行了预测分析。通过对模型的仿真模拟发现,武汉市的私车发展还将继续呈上升趋势。通过对武汉市汽车保有量的研究,为今后武汉市的城市管理、交通规划提供一定的参考依据。The influential factors of the private cars in Wuhan were discussed. A System Dynamic Flow Chart about the pri- vate cars of Wuhan was drawn in first, and the System Dynamic Model was built based on the flow chart. Then, the population of private cars in Wuhan was simulated. And the reliability of the models was tested. Finally, the number of the private cars in Wu- han in the next few years was forecasted. The result shows that the private cars in Wuhan will continue to rise. Through this stud- y, it has provided some references for the city management, and traffic planning in Wuhan.

关 键 词：系统动力学 私车 仿真分析 保有量预测 

分 类 号：F014.3[经济管理—政治经济学]