不确定环境下突发事件动态应急决策研究  

Dynamic Decision Support for Emergency Response under Uncertain Environment

作　　者：吴凤平[1] 程铁军[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,南京211100

出　　处：《软科学》2014年第3期26-29,34,共5页Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41271537);江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(CXLX13_255)

摘　　要：针对突发事件态势不断演变、多阶段、不确定性的特征,提出了一种多阶段多目标的动态应急决策方法。在定量描述了应急方案在各阶段对应急目标满足的不确定程度的基础上,运用等差数列对多阶段的时间序列权重进行了分析与求解;通过建立正、负理想点计算贴近系数,确定应急方案排序。最后,通过对突发泥石流事件进行案例分析,验证了该方法的可行性与有效性。This paper constructed a dynamic emergency model according to emergency characteristics, such as, evolution trends, multiple stage and uncertainty. Based on the description of the uncertainty of the emergency plans meet the emergen- cy goals is calculated, the weights of the emergency time series is analyzed and solved through arithmetic progression. Fur- thermore, the positive idea point and the negative idea point are constructed, and the approach degree is calculated to deter- mine a ranking of alternatives. Finally, a case study is given to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.

关 键 词：突发事件 多阶段 不确定性 动态应急决策 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]