塔里木河流域旱灾发生规律  

Historical Drought Disasters Occurred in the Tarim River Basin

作　　者：木沙.如孜 雷晓云[1] 白云岗 王芹芹[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学水利与土木工程学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052 [2]新疆水利水电科学研究院,新疆乌鲁木齐830049

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2014年第2期274-278,共5页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：自治区科技支撑项目"新疆农业干旱减灾成因及风险评估研究"(201331104);国家自然科学基金项目(U1178301);新疆维吾尔自治区水文学及水资源重点学科基金资助

摘　　要：通过1949—2010年塔里木河流域干旱灾害资料,研究了塔里木河流域干旱灾害的频次和旱情,采用波谱分析方法进行了周期分析。结果表明:1949—2010年,塔里木河流域有记载的干旱灾害共59次,平均每1.04 a发生1次。在59次的灾害中,特大旱灾、重大旱灾、中度旱灾、轻度旱灾分别为10次、25次、11次、13次,分别占16.96%、42.37%、18.64%和22.04%,3级以上大旱灾共发生35次,平均每1.75 a发生1次,占干旱灾害发生年总数的59.32%。塔里木河流域1990—2010年受旱率超过20%的有14 a,受旱率和成灾率最高的年份为1993年,分别为37.5%和17.3%。受旱率超过25%、成灾率超过15%的有3 a,分别是1993、2001年和2002年,平均7 a一遇;每5 a不同级别平均受旱面积依次为2.65×105、2.22×105、3.23×105hm2和3.53×105hm2;平均成灾面积分别为1.22×105、1.05×105、1.78×105hm2和2.31×105hm2。塔里木河流域在1950—2010年存在准2 a、准3 a、准6 a、准13 a的周期,且准2 a、准3 a的周期相当显著,置信度分别达99%和95%。After carrying out the disposal of historical data of drought disasters occurred in the Tarim River Basin during the period of 1949 -2010, the drought frequency, serious degree and period in the drainage basin were ana lyzed using the spectrum analysis and cycle analysis. The results showed that 59 times of drought disasters were to tally recorded in the drainage basin from 1949 to 2010, in which the severe drought, serious drought, moderate every 1.75 years and accounted for 59.32% of the total drought disaster years. The drought disaster rate over 20% occurred in 14 years in the Tarim River Basin during the period of 1990 -2010, the drought occurrence rate and drought disaster rate were the highest in 1993, and they were 37.5% and 17.3% respectively. The drought occur rence rate over 25% and drought disaster rate over 15% occurred in 3 years in 1993, 2001 and 2002 respectively,

关 键 词：旱灾 频次 周期 塔里木河流域 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]