基于作物空间分配模型的东北三省春玉米时空分布特征  

Spatiotemporal changes of maize sown area and yieldin Northeast China between 1980 and 2010using spatial production allocation model

作　　者：谭杰扬[1] 李正国[1] 杨鹏[1] 刘珍环[2] 李志鹏[1] 张莉[1] 吴文斌[1] 游良志 唐华俊[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所农业部农业信息技术重点实验室,北京100081 [2]中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广州510275 [3]Environment and Production Technology Division, International Food Policy Research Institute, 2033K Street, NW, Washington DC 20006, USA

出　　处：《地理学报》2014年第3期353-364,共12页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41171328;41201184;40930101);国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2010CB951502)~~

摘　　要：利用1980．2010年东北三省分县玉米播种面积与产量统计、耕地分布、农业灌溉分布以及作物适宜性分布等多源数据，结合基于交叉信息熵原理的作物空间分配模型（SpatialProductionAllocationModel，SPAMl，在5’×5’的像元尺度模拟了春玉米种植面积与产量的时空分布，并重点分析了两者在纬向、经向，以及高程上的时空变化规律。结果显示：（1）玉米种植面积在2000年前向北扩展至北纬44°-48°间，2000年后在中南部出现大规模发展（北纬42°-44°），并进一步向东扩展至东经1230127。间，同时还表现为向低海拔（高程100m以下）和较高海拔（高程200～350m）扩展的态势；（2）单产在纬向上的增加区主要集中在北纬42°-48°，经向上的单产增加则相对均匀，高程上单产提升区主要集中在海拔350m以下。（3）像元内玉米种植比例整体上由中低种植比例为主逐步演变为中高比例占据主体，并且中高种植比例像元对应的玉米单产水平整体上较高，反映了市场经济驱动下的玉米种植集聚化和规模化的发展趋势。Understanding crop patterns and their changes on a large scale is a critical requirement for projecting agro-ecosystem dynamics. However, tools and methods for analyzing crop sown area and yield on spatiotemporal variations are still insufficient currently. By the use of cross-entropy method, a Spatial Production Allocation Model （SPAM） was developed. Combined with geographic spatiotemporal analysis methods, a case study was further presented to analyze the spatial characteristics of maize sown area and yield in Northeast China during 1980-2010 within 5＇ × 5＇ grid cells. The results indicated the following： （1） Maize sown area mainly expanded northwards during 1980-2000 （located at 44°N-48° N） and then concentrated at central and southern in Northeast China on latitudinal variations in the following years. Also it moved eastwards （located at 123°E to 127°E） and lower elevation （below 100m） as well as higher elevation （mainly from 200 m to 350 m） region on longitudinal and altitudinal variations, respectively. （2） Maize yield which has been improved largely mainly located at 42°N to 48°N and concentrated at the region below the altitude of 350 m on latitudinal and altitudinal variations, respectively, while its increase is relatively homogeneous on longitudinal variations. （3） Additionally, dominant maize proportion on a pixel scale has developed to middle-high proportion gradually during 1980-2010, and maize yield located at the pixel of middle-high proportion seems higher, which reflected the trends of agglomeration and large-scale development of maize cultivation driven by market economy.

关 键 词：春玉米 作物空间分配模型 时空变化 东北三省 

分 类 号：S513[农业科学—作物学]